What can we expect to happen to mortgage rates this year

There's good and bad news for home shoppers hoping for lower mortgage rates in 2026 — in the first month of the year, rates fell to a three-year low, and have hovered in the low 6.0% range since. But experts don't think rates will fall much more this year.

Still, the decrease may help you afford a home. 

Despite a 0.75% cut in the federal funds rate over the course of 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained stubborn, averaging just under 6.60% throughout the year, about a tenth of a point lower than the 2024 average of 6.72%, a CNBC analysis of weekly Freddie Mac data shows. By the end of 2026, experts predict the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average between 5.90% and 6.30%. 

"What we've been seeing recently gives us at least preliminary evidence that rates are going to be a little bit stickier than maybe you would expect from Fed policy, but still lower by a decent amount than they were in 2025," Jake Krimmel, a Realtor.com senior economist, told CNBC Select in December 2025. While short-term debt like credit cards and auto loans typically move with the Fed Funds Rate, mortgages move in lock-step with the 10-Year Treasury yield.

Here's what economists at key real estate organizations — Realtor.com, National Association of Realtors, Redfin and Fannie Mae – think mortgage rates will average this year:

While the decrease may seem relatively small, it’s big enough to make homeownership possible for some shoppers who have been sidelined from the market due to high home prices and interest rates. This is especially true now, as people’s raises are outpacing home prices for the first time in years, NAR Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research Nadia Evangelou told CNBC Select. 

“A 50 to 60 basis points declining rate, combined with stronger income growth, makes homeownership more attainable,” she said. 

However, a bigger hurdle for sustained affordability is the middle-income housing stock. While there were upticks in housing supply overall last year, there’s been less progress on building homes for the typical American, which will be a key issue in 2026, Evangelou said. 

“We estimate that the country is short by about half a million homes priced at or below roughly $260,000,” she said. “These are homes that people earning about $75,000 can afford.” 

Even with that gap and the fact that rates aren’t expected to budge too much, it could still be easier for many to buy a home this year than it was in 2025. If you’re planning on making homeownership a reality this year, read on to find some key lenders that can help make it possible. 

Here are some great options if you’re looking to buy a home for the first time in 2026.

Best for low rates: Better

Better is an online-only lender that doesn’t have any in-person locations. Like many lenders with this model, it can offer lower rates because it has fewer overhead costs. We picked Better as our best lender for low rates. It also offers preapproval in as little as three minutes and 24/7 customer support. 

But it doesn’t have in-person locations or offer USDA loans. 

Best for in-person experience: Chase Bank

With over 4,000 locations nationwide, Chase Bank is an excellent option for first-time mortgage borrowers seeking an in-person experience. 

Chase also has numerous products geared toward first-time homebuyers, including its DreaMaker mortgage, which allows qualified home shoppers to put down just 3%. It also offers a grant of up to $10,000 to customers in certain metros to put toward a down payment or closing costs. 

However, it does not offer USDA loans. 

Best online customer experience: Rocket Mortgage 

Online lender Rocket Mortgage consistently ranks high on J.D. Power customer satisfaction surveys and has an A+ from the Better Business Bureau. It’s easy to see why, with its robust customer service hours and its extensive online tools. 

With ONE+ by Rocket Mortgage, borrowers who make less than 80% AMI can get a grant of 2% down, up to $7,000, when they make a down payment of 1% to 2.99%.

Rocket Mortgage does not have any in-person locations, so if that’s a dealbreaker for you, try another lender. 

These are just some of the mortgage lenders that can help you make your homeownership dreams a reality with lower rates in 2026 — check out our list of Best Mortgage Lenders for more.

At CNBC Select, our mission is to provide our readers with high-quality service journalism and comprehensive consumer advice so they can make informed decisions with their money. Every mortgage article is based on rigorous reporting by our team of expert writers and editors with extensive knowledge of mortgage products. While CNBC Select earns a commission from affiliate partners on many offers and links, we create all our content without input from our commercial team or any outside third parties, and we pride ourselves on our journalistic standards and ethics.

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