Homebuyers are waiting for 6% mortgage rates — When could it actually happen?

If you’ve been monitoring mortgage rates, things have been looking pretty rosy lately. After starting 2025 just above 7%, rates are hovering just over 6.0%, landing at an average of 6.26% a week before Thanksgiving.

Mortgage rates are inching closer to what experts have identified as the tipping point that could significantly loosen the congested housing market and get existing homebuyers moving again.

The National Association has marked 6% mortgage rate as a tipping point that could unlock the congested housing market, according to a July report, NAR indicated dipping below 6% would make a median-priced home affordable for approximately  5.5 million more households, including 1.6 million renters. 

“If rates were to hit that magic number, it’s likely that about 10% — or 550,000—of those additional households would buy a home over the next 12 or 18 months,” the organization said in the release. 

When could rates dip below 6%?  Fannie Mae, the government-backed enterprise that buys mortgages from lenders and packages them into guaranteed securities, is anticipating a 14-month timeline. 

According to Fannie Mae’s latest Economic and Housing Outlook, mortgage rates will end 2025 at 6.4% and reach 5.9% at the end of 2026. That's a slight shift from its forecast in July, when it predicted rates would stay at 6% or above at least until 2027.

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, agrees with Fannie Mae’s latest prediction.

“Mortgage rates are probably still going to start with a 6 all the way through the end of 2026,” Hale told CNBC Select. “We've been here before — mortgage rates got all the way down to 6.1% in September 2024 before spending several months going in the opposite direction.”

Many consumers hoped that the Sept. 17 Fed rate cut would lead to a notable rate drop. Rates actually increased slightly, according to Freddie Mac's weekly Mortgage Market Survey, from 6.26% on Sept. 18 to 6.30% on Sept. 25.

That’s because mortgage rates are more tied to the 10-year Treasury rate, which has stayed above 4% since October 2024.

“That’s made it hard for mortgage rates to get below that 6% threshold,” Hale said. 

While the current average rate of 6.30% may be higher than borrowers would like, it’s still significantly lower than the 7.04% we saw in mid-January.

On a $300,000, 30-year mortgage, that 0.74% decrease would save you nearly $150 a month on your mortgage payment. 

The downward trend has already spurred the housing market, according to NAR’s Pending Home Sales Report, which indicates home sales increased by 4% between July and August, when rates dipped from 6.75% to 6.56%.

That might not seem like much, says Hale, “[but] every decline in mortgage rates makes a difference for someone who's on the fence about buying,” 

Fannie Mae predicts home sales to climb to 4.72 million by the end of this year and increase to 5.16 million in 2026.

If you’re in the market for a home, Hale says waiting for a rate fall a year from now isn’t the smartest strategy. Buying activity, which has already increased, is poised to surge in the coming months. That could lead to increased competition and higher listing prices.

“It makes sense to beat the rush,” Hale said. “We’re also very close to the seasonal sweet spot when buyers have the most advantages  because of that lower competition.”

There are ways to get a better mortgage rate now, although you’ll need to spend more in the short run.

A rate buydown enables borrowers to temporarily or permanently lower their mortgage rate in increments of 0.25%, typically at a cost of 1% of the total loan amount.

“You can take a rate that’s in the mid- to high-6% range and get it below 6%” right now, Darren Tooley, a loan officer at Union Home Mortgage in Southfield, Michigan, told CNBC Select. 

On a $300,000 loan, buying two points (a 0.5% discount) would add $6,000 to your upfront expenses. However, if it means lowering your rate from the current average of 6.30% to 5.80%, it'd save you nearly $35,000 in interest over the life of your mortgage.

Not all lenders offer mortgage buydowns but Rocket Mortgage offers two or more discount points on 30-year fixed, jumbo, VA and FHA loans.

Choosing a shorter term is another way to snag a lower rate: Just before the Fed made its rate cut in September, Tooley said, he was able to give a client looking at a 20-year mortgage a rate of around 5.5%.

“You don’t have to go down to a 15-year mortgage to get below 6% right now,” Tooley added. 

If you want even better numbers, Hale suggests looking for a house that isn’t yet completed. Builders need to move inventory quickly and often try to attract buyers with lower rates for the first year or two.

“Builders are working with lenders to come up with better deals,” she said. “I've already seen builders advertise rates that start with a 4.”

At CNBC Select, we work with experts who possess specialized knowledge and authority, gained through relevant training and/or experience. For this story, we interviewed Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale, who leads a team of analysts in sifting through real estate data to gain a deeper understanding of what's next for the housing market. Prior to joining Realtor.com, she served as managing director of housing research for the National Association of Realtors.

We also interviewed Darren Tooley, a loan officer at Union Home Mortgage in Southfield, Michigan. A graduate of Central Michigan University, Darren has previously worked at Wells Fargo, Caliber Home Loans and Cornerstone Financial Services. 

At CNBC Select, our mission is to deliver high-quality service journalism and comprehensive consumer advice to our readers, enabling them to make informed financial decisions. Every mortgage story is based on rigorous reporting by our team of expert writers and editors with extensive knowledge of mortgage products. While CNBC Select earns a commission from affiliate partners on many offers and links, we create all our content independently of our commercial team and any outside third parties. We pride ourselves on maintaining high journalistic standards and ethics.

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