Last year's record-high inflation and ramped-up interest rates left many fretting that a recession was around the corner. But after the January jobs report — indicating an increase of 517,000 positions (much higher than the 187,000 predicted) — those recession fears have dwindled quite a bit. With cooling annual inflation and the unemployment rate at its lowest level in over half a century, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is predicting a low probability that a recession will hit this year.
But when you couple Yellen's comments with reports of consumer spending stalling — a main driver of the economy's growth — you end up with a mixed forecast that has many economists (not to mention regular Americans) scratching their heads. What's not uncertain is that if a recession does come to pass, you're better off mentally preparing for it now.
"When a recession strikes, it can bring along with it an overall downturn in your household balance sheet — losses in retirement and investment accounts, decreases in home value, reduced wages or bonuses and possibly even a layoff," CFP Bryan Kuderna, author of "Millennial Millionaire" and "What Should I Do with My Money?" tells CNBC Select.
If your first instinct is to cut any expense you can, think again. In fact, there are four things Kuderna argues you shouldn't cut back on if a recession hits.
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Don't cut back on these 4 things during a recession
While Kuderna notes that it's natural to tighten up your spending, he advises not cutting back on the following items unless you're completely out of options:
1. Insurance
Kuderna, like many financial advisors, preaches a protection-first strategy; it only takes one gap in coverage to upend everything you have.
"It's tempting for people to want to erase a cost that does not seem to add any value each month or year," Kuderna says. "But there's a saying in insurance that, 'If you can't afford the premium, you'll never be able to afford the problem.'"
Instead of sacrificing your coverage entirely, you can ask your insurance providers for packaging discounts or better rates if a recession hits. Kuderna specifically calls out disability and life insurance as two critical products that can protect your economic value to your family or business. "Not only does lapsing these coverages bring about great risk, but to restore them at a later age can be costlier or perhaps impossible based on changes in health," he explains.
CNBC Select ranked Northwestern Mutual 'best overall' on its list of the best life insurance companies, based on customer satisfaction and financial strength.
Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance
Cost
The best way to estimate your costs is to request a quote
Online quote for term policy
No
App available
Yes
Policy highlights
Northwestern Mutual offers five term, whole life and universal life policies. Dividends, while not guaranteed, have been paid to eligible policyholders annually since 1872.
Read our review of Northwest Mutual Life Insurance.
2. High-interest debt payoff
Paying off your high-interest debt (i.e. credit card debt) is always good advice, but that's especially true during a recession — even right before it. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue rate hikes this year, which could translate to hundreds of dollars being added to an unpaid credit card balance in just a handful of months.
"This can be a drag on your financial plan, which is why it's so important to have these affairs in order before a recession strikes," Kuderna says.
If you don't think you can completely pay off your credit card debt ASAP, consider buying some time by transferring that debt to a balance transfer card with a zero-interest introductory period. This will shield your budget from today's high interest payments and give you breathing room to pay down your debt. The credit cards below each offer an introductory 0% APR period for 21 months:
The Wells Fargo Reflect® Card can help you save on interest charges thanks to its extra generous intro-APR offer on purchases and qualifying balance transfers.
Highlights
Highlights shown here are provided by the issuer and have not been reviewed by CNBC Select's editorial staff.
- Apply Now to take advantage of this offer and learn more about product features, terms and conditions.
- 0% intro APR for 21 months from account opening on purchases and qualifying balance transfers. 17.49%, 23.99%, or 28.24% variable APR thereafter; balance transfers made within 120 days qualify for the intro rate, BT fee of 5%, min: $5.
- $0 annual fee.
- Up to $600 of cell phone protection against damage or theft. Subject to a $25 deductible.
- Through My Wells Fargo Deals, you can get access to personalized deals from a variety of merchants. It's an easy way to earn cash back as an account credit when you shop, dine, or enjoy an experience simply by using an eligible Wells Fargo credit card.
Balance transfer fee
5%, min: $5
Foreign transaction fee
3%
The Citi® Diamond Preferred® Card is one of the best balance transfer credit cards and also has a generous intro APR offer.
Highlights
Highlights shown here are provided by the issuer and have not been reviewed by CNBC Select's editorial staff.
- 0% Intro APR on balance transfers for 21 months and on purchases for 12 months from date of account opening. After that the variable APR will be 16.49% - 27.24%, based on your creditworthiness. Balance transfers must be completed within 4 months of account opening.
- There is an intro balance transfer fee of 3% of each transfer (minimum $5) completed within the first 4 months of account opening. After that, your fee will be 5% of each transfer (minimum $5).
- No Annual Fee - our low intro rates and all the benefits don't come with a yearly charge.
- Buy now and pay later. Split your payment for eligible purchases of $75 or more into a fixed payment with Citi® Flex Pay.
- Get free access to your FICO® Score online.
Balance transfer fee
There is an intro balance transfer fee of 3% of each transfer (minimum $5) completed within the first 4 months of account opening. After that, your fee will be 5% of each transfer (minimum $5).
Foreign transaction fee
3%
The Citi Simplicity® Card may not earn rewards, but it can still save you money due to its amazing intro-APR offers.
3. Savings
"Liquidity is key in good times and bad," Kuderna says. If you can keep contributing to your savings in a recession, he suggests you should — even if that means temporarily pausing your investment and retirement contributions until the economy improves.
"People who stop paying themselves first risk watching their cash positions dwindle, which can introduce credit card debt when expenses arise, in turn leaving them playing catch up when the economy rebounds," Kuderna explains.
Now is actually a good time to open a savings account while rates are high. You can earn more on the money you set aside while having the reassurance that it's accessible when you need it. To compare the best options for you, check out the Savings Marketplace tool that CNBC Select recently launched.
CNBC Select also compared the best high-yield savings accounts that allow you to grow your cash-savings even faster. Some accounts, like UFB Portfolio Savings, are offering APYs north of 3%.
4. Education
Kuderna advises eliminating other discretionary expenses before cutting back on your education. "Learning is the key to exponentially increasing future wealth, both in the monetary sense and in the 'state of well-being' definition I prefer," Kuderna says. In practical terms, an advanced degree or additional skills can help you advance your career (or at least keep your job) if a recession leads to layoffs and a more competitive job market.
Bottom line
If a recession hits in either the coming months or the second half of this year, Kuderna's advice is to not cut back on your insurance coverage, your high-interest debt payoff, your savings or your education. You might find it difficult to prioritize these expenses, but keeping up with them will pay off in the long term when the economy stabilizes again.
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