With Middle East tensions showing signs of easing, crude oil has pulled back sharply as the geopolitical risk premium that was thrust into the market is beginning to fade. Reports from the hot zones are hard to decipher so we find it best to use the smartest leading indicator available — market prices — to help uncover what's actually happening. In emotional volatile market environments like this, I implore you to ignore those who proclaim an imminent crash. Anybody so certain of anything — except maybe that the markets will be open for trading tomorrow — is acting out of their own self-serving interests to drive fear and gain more attention. Despite the geopolitical tragedies occurring and the barrage of scary headlines crossing the tape when you step back, take a deep breath and look at what's actually happening, not what you think is happening. It's been actually a rangebound, somewhat boring market. Case in point: The Invesco QQQ Trust , which follows the Nasdaq 100 , is around the same level as it was on Oct. 8, 2025. Since then we've been caught in a 8.5% range after the market rallied 58% from the Q1 2025 lows. Context matters. If you hibernated for the fall and winter and woke up on this beautiful 65-degree sunny day in Saratoga Springs, New York, you would check the charts and think to yourself, "Wow, I didn't miss a thing." The QQQ held the lower end of the 8.5% range and the 200-day moving average as accumulation volume is ramping up. Continuing with this point: You've heard about the massive artificial intelligence bubble that's about to pop, the great rotation into value and cyclical, and how you should head for the hills and buy gold. Let's see the damage in the semiconductors. Not shown on this VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) chart, but semis are up 150% from the Q1 2025 lows and just 6.5% off all-time highs. It held a nice $380 to $385 pivot zone that flipped from resistance in 2025 to support in 2026. The 50-day moving average is above the 200-day, and price is above both moving averages. The market volatility we've seen in the last few weeks is in my opinion a rotation back out of the value, defensive, cyclical names that were bid up in anticipation of Middle Eastern attacks. The two charts above, QQQ and SMH, are showing the growthier areas of the market are showing better relative strength setting up a possible sustained move higher in tech heading into the summer. We're expecting Oracle earnings tonight that will shed more light on the AI infrastructure buildout, which follows some highly impressive earnings reports from Nvidia , Broadcom and Marvell . Speaking of Nvidia, we're looking ahead to next week's Nvidia GPU technology conference on March 16 that could reignite the focus on AI provided the geopolitical tensions continues to subside Nvidia is in an even longer consolidation than the Nasdaq-100 trading at the same level as Aug. 2025, despite putting up yet another blockbuster quarter that saw quarterly growth compared to same quarter last year of 73% in sales and 96% in earnings per share. Above $190 and Nvidia is going to attempt a range break yet again that should target the mid-$200s. Including Broadcom and Marvell for good measure to reinforce the idea that despite the scary geopolitical headlines the semis have simply been in winter hibernation, are starting to wake up and will likely run free again as the snow and geopolitical tensions finally melt away. — Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital We offer active portfolio management and regular subscriber updates like the idea presented above here . DISCLOSURES: Gordon owns Nvidia, Broadcom, personally and for clients in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
