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Dow closes lower, giving up gain after Powell signals Fed may not cut again this year

A trader works, as a screen broadcasts a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the Fed rate cut announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., Oct. 29, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

The Dow Jones Industrial Average staged a rapid reversal on Wednesday, touching a record high earlier in the session before rolling over after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank might not cut interest rates again in 2025.

The blue-chip index closed down 74.37 points, or 0.2%, to 47,632.00, while the S&P 500 ended a handful of points lower to 6,890.59. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, rising 0.55% to a fresh record close of 23,958.47, propped up by a rise in Nvidia. The Dow was up as much as 334 points, touching a new all-time high at one point before turning lower.

The Fed lowered its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon, putting it in a range of between 3.75% to 4%. This marks the second time this year that the central bank has slashed rates. Prior to the decision, investors were betting on another quarter-point cut at the Fed's December meeting.

But Powell knocked down market expectations after saying that there were "strongly differing views about how to proceed in December" during this meeting's committee discussions. "A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it," he said.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped back above 4% on Powell's comments about the December meeting. Stocks that stand to lose from higher rates led the rollover in the market. Consumer stocks like Costco and McDonald's declined. Visa and Mastercard also fell.

All in all, Powell did indicate that what to do at the December meeting was still in the air, adding that inflation was not too far from the Fed's target.

"Powell is reflecting the tension on the Fed between those who favor more aggressive easing and those who are concerned that inflation remains too high, even as the labor market weakens," said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments. "Our view has been that the market has been too aggressive in pricing in the pace and magnitude of future cuts. Inflation is elevated above the Fed's target, and we see monetary policy as moderately loose, with nominal rates below nominal GDP growth."

Megacap technology name Nvidia clung to gains Wednesday, advancing 3.1%. The artificial intelligence chip darling's market capitalization had rocketed up above $5 trillion in the session, the first time a U.S. company reached such a valuation. The stock notched a five-day winning streak as well. The move comes just a day after the company announced an array of new deals, especially one that involves the chip giant taking a $1 billion stake in Finnish networking company Nokia.

Five fellow "Magnificent Seven" companies are set to report this week. They're expected to continue spending on building data centers, but any disappointment from the megacap behemoths could hurt the broader market. Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Microsoft are due to report after the close on Wednesday. Apple and Amazon post results on Thursday.

Investors are additionally awaiting what comes of President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, though trade tensions between the U.S. and China already appear to have alleviated after progress over the weekend. Trump has said that he expects to cut fentanyl-related tariffs on China, which sit at 20%.

Dow closes lower

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back from a record Wednesday to finish the session in negative territory.

The blue-chip Dow slid 74.37 points, or 0.16%, to settle at 47,632.00. The S&P 500 ended the day little changed at 6,890.59, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.55%, closing at 23,958.47.

— Sean Conlon

Wednesday is tech's biggest earnings day — here's what analysts are looking to see

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

Wall Street is gearing up for the biggest earnings day for megacap tech, with reports from Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet due out after Wednesday's market close. Analysts are looking for key clues to gauge AI growth, spending and performance from each of these companies.

From Meta, for example, Bank of America expects a clear revenue beat but is looking for updates on the company's AI deals and industry competition, particularly as ChatGPT-maker OpenAI is focusing more on ads and social media. Concerns remain about Meta's significant AI spending and how it will manifest in long-term growth.

"With reports of additional AI hiring, potential LLM & infrastructure deals, and OpenAI social competition, we think updates on Meta's AI outlook will be a call focus and critical for sentiment. Also, Meta will report concurrently with Alphabet & we think investors will focus on revenue growth differentials & relative margin performance," Bank of America analyst Justin Post wrote in an Oct. 21 note to clients.

Google parent Alphabet is also under scrutiny about its AI positioning and how its search business fares against increasing chatbot competition, even as its shares have recovered in recent weeks. Ahead of Microsoft's results, analysts are watching to see if the company can build on its strong report from the previous quarter and show momentum in its Azure business and growth in PC shipments.

For all three, OpenAI remains a competitive force in areas such as advertising, search and social media, which several analysts acknowledge as a potential risk to upside moving forward. Read more about what analysts are looking for in CNBC Pro.

— Pia Singh

A market decline on Fed commentary can offer 'buying opportunity,' CIO says

A pullback on Wednesday's Federal Reserve updates can create an opportunity to enter the market, according to Chris Zaccarelli, investing chief at Northlight Asset Management.

"This is a great example of the market being forward-looking," Zaccarelli said in a written statement.

"The immediate news – a rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening (and the beginning of automatic buying of bonds) – are both positives for stocks and bonds," he added. "However, markets already expected this and were negatively surprised that future cuts might be taken off the table."

Zaccarelli comment refers to a comment from Powell during his press conference that another rate decrease in December is not guaranteed. Stocks slid following these remarks.

Still, Zaccarelli said a market decline should end being a "buying opportunity." That's because the Fed is likely to continue support stocks and bonds by further cutting rates in the next year, even if it doesn't lower borrowing costs at the next gathering in December.

— Alex Harring

Nvidia's $5 trillion market cap equals around 25 Disneys and 50 Nikes

Co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., Jensen Huang attends the 9th edition of the VivaTech trade show at the Parc des Expositions de la Porte de Versailles on June 11, 2025, in Paris.
Chesnot | Getty Images

Nvidia's market cap reached $5 trillion on Wednesday, making the stock's size equivalent to roughly 25 Disneys, 50 Nikes and more than 900 Macy's. It's also more than double the size of entire market indexes in France and Germany.

See how Nvidia's latest milestone stacks up here.

— Alex Harring

Small caps slide

Small caps underperformed the broader market on Wednesday, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's warning that a rate cut at the December policy meeting is not a guarantee spooked investors.

The small cap-focused Russell 2000 slid around 0.5% as of shortly after 3 p.m. ET. By comparison, the S&P 500 ticked slightly below its flatline for the day.

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Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500, 1-day

Small caps are considered to be particularly impacted by monetary policy, so any shifts in the interest rate outlook can lead to outsized moves for this group.

— Alex Harring

After the Fed's rate cut, tech earnings are the next catalyst for markets today

Traders are now turning to the next catalyst for markets: a batch of three highly-awaited earnings reports from Big Tech giants Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft due after Wednesday's close.

"Markets had priced in better than a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut, and the Fed delivered right on cue ... Now the spotlight shifts to the Magnificent Seven, with Meta reporting tonight. I'm optimistic," Gina Bolvin, President of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said in a Wednesday note to clients. "AI-driven capital spending and forward guidance from the Mag 7 will be the key catalysts moving markets in the near term."

— Pia Singh

Visa could become the "stablecoin of stablecoins," Mizuho says

Visa is poised to become the "stablecoin of stablecoins," according to Mizuho.

The investment firm has an outperform rating on Visa. It has maintained a $425 price target on shares.

"In our view, given tailwinds from the Genius Act & the new initiative, Visa could be one of
the biggest stablecoin winners," Mizuho analysts said Wednesday in a note to clients.

The analysts pointed to the ubiquity of Visa Direct as a catalyst that could accelerate Visa's play to dominated the stablecoin market. They also noted that the stablecoin market is oversaturated with various tokens, giving a centralized pole like Visa a "tremendous competitive edge" over other issuers.

— Liz Napolitano

Fed lowers benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point

A television station broadcasts the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Fed cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points. That put the benchmark rate in a range of 3.75%-4%.

The move was widely expected by investors.

"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments," the statement said. "Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated."

— Fred Imbert

Stride, Caterpillar among stocks moving in midday trading Wednesday

Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday:

  • Stride — The for-profit education company plunged 50%, on pace for its worst day ever, on much weaker-than-expected guidance. The company sees fiscal second-quarter revenue between $620 million and $640 million. Analysts on average expected an outlook of $613.3 million. Full-year revenue and operating income guidance also fell short of estimates.
  • Caterpillar — The construction and agriculture equipment manufacturer jumped 12% on better-than-expected results for the third quarter. Caterpillar earned $4.95 per share, adjusted, on revenue of $17.64 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of $4.59 per share on revenue of $16.77 billion. The stock was on pace for its biggest one-day gain since 2009.
  • Avantor — Shares of the pharmaceutical company fell more than 17% after the company cut its organic revenue outlook for the full year. Third-quarter earnings of 22 cents per share, excluding certain items, matched a FactSet consensus.

For the full list, read here.

— Pia Singh

UBS: AI-related stocks should drive equities 'in the months and years ahead'

Khanchit Khirisutchalual | Istock | Getty Images

A slew of recent tech headlines suggests AI demand is in a strong spot and should continue supporting U.S. stocks for the near-term and beyond, according to UBS.

Moreover, markets' widely held expectation of an imminent rate cut, as well as upcoming earnings, should be a boon for risk assets, the firm said.

"A definite timing on the end of quantitative tightening should support risk sentiment," Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Americas chief investment officer Americas and global head of equities at UBS, wrote in a Wednesday note to clients. "Rising adoption and integration of AI tools should continue to boost demand for computational resources, underpinning strong AI capex. Third- quarter results from big tech companies in the next two days should offer further insights into the spending and monetization trend. We maintain our conviction that AI-related stocks should drive further equity performance in the months and years ahead."

Hoffmann-Burchardi noted positive developments this week in the tech industry, including Nvidia's series of new partnerships the AI giant announced at its GTC event, during which Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company has visibility into about $500 billion of revenue over the coming quarters. She also highlighted Qualcomm's plans to release two AI accelerators in 2026, ahead of market expectations.

— Pia Singh

Microsoft's position as AI leader bolstered by new OpenAI agreement, says Bank of America

Microsoft's new agreement with OpenAI reinforces its position as a leading artificial-intelligence infrastructure player, Bank of America said in a note Tuesday.

The deal came as OpenAI announced it completed its recapitalization on Tuesday, saying its nonprofit is now called OpenAI Foundation. It will hold a 26% equity stake in its for-profit arm, OpenAI Group PBC. Microsoft will now have a 27% stake, valued at about $135 billion, in OpenAI Group PBC.

In addition, Microsoft will retain the rights to OpenAI's technology through 2021 and OpenAI has agreed to buy an incremental $250 billion of Azure services, Microsoft said.

"Assuming this deal is a five year deal that is beginning in FY27, we estimate it could represent material incremental growth for Azure beginning in 2027," Bank of America Securities analyst Brad Sills wrote.

The continuation of Open AI's application programming interface (API) with Azure is also a strategically important element of the partnership, he said. It ensures all commercial access to Open AI's models, like ChatGPT, will continue to run on Azure infrastructure, he noted.

"Why is this so critical? Every time Enterprises, such as Morgan Stanley, which uses GPT-4 for agents, or Canva, whose "Magic Edit" features rely on GPT models, interact with OpenAI's API, those inference workloads are processed through Azure's GPU clusters, enabling Microsoft to capture the associated compute, networking and storage revenue," Sills said.

Shares of Microsoft are up almost 28% year to date.

— Michelle Fox

Market won't get 'full validation' of future rate cut expectations from Fed, El-Erian says

Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz's chief economic advisor, said investors shouldn't hold their breath for the Federal Reserve to corroborate hopes for future interest rate decreases.

"What we will not get is a a full validation of what the market has priced in in terms of future cuts," El-Erian said Wednesday on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."

Stocks surged to fresh records ahead of Wednesday afternoon's Federal Reserve decision. Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 98% chance of a rate cut as of late Wednesday morning, per CME's FedWatch tool.

— Alex Harring

Caterpillar shares are supporting the Dow's rise Wednesday

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 29, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Caterpillar's more than 13% rise on Wednesday was single-handedly powering the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gains.

With Wednesday's rise, Caterpillar shares were on pace for their best day since Oct. 13, 2008, when it jumped 14.7%. The blue-chip Dow was last up 230 points, or about 0.5%.

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CAT, 1-day

— Sean Conlon, Nick Wells

Here's how the market has performed since the last Fed meeting

Since the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point last month, the market has surged to new heights, scoring multiple new intraday and closing highs.

From Sept. 17 to present, the S&P 500 has moved more than 4% higher. The Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have risen more than 7% and almost 5%, respectively, in that period.

— Sean Conlon

Deutsche Bank downgrades UnitedHealth Group to hold rating

UnitedHealth Group signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 21, 2025.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Following UnitedHealth Group's third-quarter earnings release, Deutsche Bank downgraded the insurance stock to a hold rating from buy. However, analyst George Hill raised his price target to $333 from $275.

Hill's revised price forecast is approximately 9% below where the stock closed on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, UnitedHealth reported a third-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue beat. However, Hill wrote that most of UnitedHealth's recovery story has already been priced into its stock.

"With what we now see as a multi-year beat-and-raise story with no wiggle room priced into the shares, we are downgrading UNH shares to Hold," he said. "We see near-term valuation as having largely priced in the 2027/2028 earnings recovery, despite limited visibility on the success of a turnaround at Optum Health, the unit that has seen the most erosion. Additionally, we are not convinced 2026 will be the earnings trough for Medicaid, and we expect Optum Insight and Optum Rx to see earnings deceleration in 2026."

UnitedHealth fell more than 1% in morning trading, putting its year-to-date decline now at 28%.

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UNH YTD chart

— Lisa Kailai Han

Nvidia becomes first company to hit $5 trillion valuation

16 July 2025, China, Peking: Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, speaks to journalists. During a trip to China, Huang gave a speech at the opening of the supply chain trade fair and met Chinese politicians. Photo: Johannes Neudecker/dpa (Photo by Johannes Neudecker/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Shares of Nvidia rose more than 4% Wednesday, making the tech giant the first company to cross the $5 trillion market value threshold.

The extraordinary milestone reflects a remarkable rise for the company, which has evolved from a niche video game processor to an integral player in the artificial intelligence boom.

Nvidia's stock, which closed up 5% Tuesday, has climbed more than 50% year-to-date. Read more.

— Sam Meredith

Nasdaq, S&P 500 rise to records

The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 reached new records on Wednesday morning.

The tech-heavy index gained about 0.7% just after 9:30 a.m. ET, and the broad market index advanced 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 178 points, or about 0.4%.

— Sean Conlon

See the stocks moving in Wednesday's premarket

These are some of the stocks making notable moves before the bell:

  • Nvidia — Shares climbed 3.5% in Wednesday's premarket trading, building on the rally of around 5% seen in the prior session. The chipmaker is now closing in on the $5 trillion market cap milestone, which no other company has hit before.
  • Caterpillar — The construction and agriculture equipment manufacturer rose 4% on stronger-than-anticipated results for the third quarter. Caterpillar earned $4.95 per share, adjusted, on revenue of $17.64 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG forecasted a profit of $4.59 per share on revenue of $16.77 billion.
  • Fiserv — Shares of the financial services tech company plunged 28% on the back of a massive third-quarter earnings miss and guidance cut. Fiserv earned $2.04 per share, excluding certain items, on revenue of $4.92 billion. Analysts expect earnings per share of $2.64 per share on revenue of $5.35 billion.

Click here for the full list.

— Alex Harring

Etsy shares fall after earnings results, CEO change

The Etsy company logo is seen at it's NYC headquarters building on December 13, 2023 in New York City. 
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Etsy CEO Josh Silverman will step down from his position and move to the role of executive chairman at the end of the year, the online marketplace said Wednesday.

Kruti Patel Goyal, the CEO of Etsy-owned clothing resale app Depop, will take the helm at Etsy effective Jan. 1, 2026, the company said.

Etsy shares fell more than 9% in premarket trading following the news, which was announced alongside the company's third-quarter earnings report. Read more.

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ETSY, 1-day

— Annie Palmer

Fiserv plunges on earnings miss, guidance cut

Fiserv Inc. signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, July 23, 2025.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Shares of the financial services tech company plunged 32% on the back of a massive third-quarter earnings miss. Fiserv earned $2.04 per share, excluding certain items, on revenue of $4.92 billion. Analysts expect earnings per share of $2.64 per share on revenue of $5.35 billion. The company also slashed its full-year earnings guidance.

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FI 5-day chart

— Fred Imbert

Boeing shares slip after earnings

The exterior of a 777X flight test aircraft at the Everett Delivery Center on June 26, 2024, in Everett, Washington.
Jennifer Buchanan | Afp | Getty Images

Boeing shares fell nearly 1% in the premarket on Wednesday after the aerospace company's latest quarterly results.

Boeing posted an adjusted loss per share of $7.47 for the period, missing the loss of $4.59 per share that analysts surveyed by LSEG had penciled in. By contrast, Boeing reported $23.27 billion in revenue for the third quarter, above the consensus estimate of $21.97 billion.

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BA, 1-day

— Sean Conlon

Caterpillar rises on earnings beat

Homes under construction in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey on Nov. 19th, 2024. 
Adam Jeffery | CNBC

The construction and agriculture equipment manufacturer rose 4% on better-than-expected results for the third quarter. Caterpillar earned $4.95 per share, adjusted, on revenue of $17.64 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of $4.59 per share on revenue of $16.77 billion.

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CAT 5-day chart

— Fred Imbert

CVS slips on mixed third-quarter results

CVS Health Corp. signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Monday, July 28, 2025.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Shares of CVS Health slipped in the premarket after the pharmacy operator posted mixed results for the third quarter. The company's revenue of $102.87 billion beat analyst expectations. However, it also reported a net loss of $3.99 billion.

— Fred Imbert

Nvidia nears $5 trillion market capitalizaion

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang speaks during the Live Keynote Pregame during the Nvidia GTC (GPU Technology Conference) in Washington, DC, on Oct. 28, 2025.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images

Nvidia shares rose more than 3% in the premarket, putting the chipmaker on track to become the first company ever to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion.

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NVDA year to date

— Fred Imbert

Warner Music Group gets price target increase at Morgan Stanley

Pavlo Gonchar | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Morgan Stanley analyst Cameron Mansson-Perrone raised his price target on Warner Music to $37 from $35, implying upside of 15% from Tuesday's close.

"We see opportunity for improved rate growth to drive accelerating streaming revenues as we move into FY26. Whether that ultimately comes from core DSP pricing, VIP tiers, or PSM escalators, is unlikely to matter significantly to shares, in our view. Streaming growth improvement appears to be already reflected, however, in consensus expectations, where we remain broadly in-line," He said.

The analyst has an equal weight rating on shares.

— Fred Imbert

Markets are pricing in a quarter-point cut with near certainty

Markets were last pricing in a 99.5% likelihood of quarter point cut at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That would put the target rate at 3.75% to 4.00%.

— Sarah Min

Stocks making the biggest moves after hours

Check out the companies making headlines after hours.

Visa — Shares rose 1% after the payments company reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines. Visa posted adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share on revenue of $10.72 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected per-share earnings of $2.97 on revenue of $10.61 billion.

Seagate Technology — Shares rose more than 4% after the data storage company reported strong fiscal first-quarter results. Seagate earned $2.61 per share on an adjusted basis on revenue of $2.63 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG had anticipated per-share earnings of $2.37 on revenue of $2.55 billion.

Read the full list here.

— Sarah Min

Stock futures open little changed

Stock futures opened little changed Tuesday night.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 29 points, or 0.06%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.02% and 0.04%, respectively.

— Sarah Min