Metals

Gold firms with focus on Middle East developments, U.S. economic data

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Gold steadied on Tuesday as investors parsed a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel and awaited further details on the status of U.S.-Iran talks.
Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Gold gained on Tuesday as traders monitored the latest developments in the Middle East after U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with ​Iran were ongoing.

U.S. ⁠gold ‌futures gained 0.3% to settle at $4,519.90.

Gold market trajectory "depends on ⁠the direction of oil prices, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar - all of that, in turn, is tied to the Middle East situation," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com.

"For me to turn bullish on ‌gold again, we need to see at least some renewed upside momentum suggesting that buyers are coming back. At the moment, however, the ​market seems directionless, with participants largely waiting for cues, particularly from the Middle East."

On the geopolitical front, Iran is reviewing a proposed agreement with the United States to halt the war between the two countries, Iran's Mehr news ⁠reported, after Trump said talks to reach a deal were continuing.

Since the start of the conflict, ‌gold has come under pressure as a surge in energy prices has stoked inflation worries and expectations of elevated interest rates.

Although gold is typically viewed as a hedge against inflation, it tends ⁠to lose its attractiveness as a non-yielding asset when interest rates are high.

Data ⁠due this week include ⁠the ADP employment report on Wednesday, and Friday's employment report. Markets will scan the data for cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Commerzbank ​expects gold at $4,800 per troy ounce ‌by the end of this year, down from its previous forecast of $5,000. It maintained its forecast of $5,200 per for the end of 2027 and noted that structural factors supporting gold remain entirely intact.

"In addition to the lowered gold price forecast, weaker industrial demand for silver also points ​to a slightly lower silver price," Commerzbank ‌added.

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