Traders on Kalshi expect that job creation in May will see a slowdown but still surpass Dow Jones consensus.
Dow Jones estimates that May's nonfarm payrolls report — due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — will show a gain of 90,000 jobs. The consensus reflects an anticipated decline from April's recorded 115,000 nonfarm payrolls and March's 185,000, the highest this year has seen so far.Â
Kalshi traders on Monday were assigning a 56% probability that the report would beat the Wall Street forecast.
Odds that over 100,00 new jobs would be added jumped after April's job report was released and currently stand at 49%. Traders on Monday also put a 40% chance that new jobs will surpass 110,000.Â
RBC Economics had a more hopeful outlook compared to Dow Jones.Â
"We expect 99K jobs were added to payrolls with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%," the firm reported last Friday. "So far in 2026, the labor market appears to be on solid footing. Still, on aggregate, new job creation has been quite limited with monthly payroll gains averaging 55K over the past six months."
The job report is set to come out ahead of the Federal Reserve's first meeting with new Chair Kevin Warsh on June 16-17. Markets are expecting the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold at the meeting, though the jobs report could influence that decision.
Dow Jones also expects hourly earnings to increase by 3.4% annually, a slight dip from last month's 3.6%. Economists also put average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly higher than last month's 0.2%.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.