Markets

Gold falls as rising oil prices boost rate hike bets; dollar, yields rise

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Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery (Oegussa) in Vienna, Austria, on Feb. 3, 2026.
Georg Hochmuth | AFP | Getty Images

Gold prices fell 1% on Thursday as climbing oil prices heightened inflation ​worries, boosting bets for U.S. ​rate hikes and ​lifting Treasury yields and the dollar, which added more pressure on bullion.

Spot gold was down 1% at $4,500.07 per ounce. On Wednesday, bullion ⁠rose ‌more than 1% in U.S. trading hours after ⁠having hit its lowest level since March 30. U.S. gold futures for June delivery lost 0.7% at $4,502.90.

Oil prices rose over 2% after Reuters reported that Iran's Supreme Leader issued a directive that ‌the country's near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad.

"Essentially, it's all still about negotiation between Iran and the U.S. and in that ​context, we have seen a bit of uncertainty if a deal can be reached or not, with that, oil prices are increasingly pressuring gold," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's order could further ⁠frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

The yellow ‌metal has fallen more than 15% since the ‌war started in late February, which has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting energy prices and stoking inflation concerns.

The dollar rose, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other ⁠currency-holders, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield resumed its climb, increasing ⁠the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

"Increasing oil prices, which ⁠push inflation higher, are putting pressure on central banks to keep rates unchanged or potentially even increase them. This, thus remains a ​headwind for gold in the near term," ‌Staunovo added.

Despite being an inflation hedge, gold struggles during periods of elevated interest rates.

Traders now see a 58% chance of at least one 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, compared with 48% a day earlier, as per ​CME's FedWatch Tool.

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