Shares in Take-Two Interactive Software are set to be lifted by the long-awaited release of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. The release of the blockbuster video game, currently scheduled for November after several delays, should provide a "potent tailwind" for the stock, as hype around GTA's rollout gathers steam. NASDAQ-listed Take-Two stock is down by around 5.4% since the start of 2026, compared to an 11.3% rise for the broader index, after the publisher was swept up in fears of competition from AI models facing the video game sector. Its shares sank almost 10% on January 30 after Alphabet unveiled a new artificial intelligence model, Project Genie, which can create interactive digital 3D worlds from user prompts. But Morgan Stanley's analysis found that game publisher stocks tend to outperform in the run-up to the release of major game launches. Stocks in the sector have risen by 18% on average in the final 6 months before launch, according to Morgan Stanley. "These launches typically drive significant institutional and retail engagement with the stocks, particularly as marketing campaigns begin in the final 3-6 months," the analysts wrote. "Increased investor attention but limited near-term execution risk also create a potent tailwind for share performance." TTWO .IXIC YTD line AI fears hit Take-Two stock Gamers and investors have been anticipating the launch of GTA VI for a number of years now, as its release has been delayed on multiple occasions. If the release takes place in November as currently scheduled, it would mark a 13-year gap between its predecessor, GTA V. GTA V was the bestselling video game of the last decade in both units sold and dollars earned, according to Take-Two Interactive Software's 2025 annual report. It sold 215 million units and reached $1 billion in sales faster than any entertainment release in history, the company said. Morgan Stanley predicts the latest instalment of the series will sell 40 million units in 2027, compared to GTA V selling 33 million copies in the "comparable" time frame. The analysts forecast that if GTA VI can capture 10% of consumer spending on console games, as achieved by GTA V in 2013, it would imply around $4.5 billion in gross revenue to the firm. Take-Two Interactive is set to release earnings on Thursday. Morgan Stanley analysts expect guidance to come in "below consensus" based on a trend seen in previous reports, despite its actual results "consistently exceeding conservative starting points" over the past decade. Morgan Stanley set a price target of $280 per share for May 2027, implying a 17% uplift. Take-Two Interactive stock closed on Tuesday at $238 per share.
