Just a few days before Uber and Lyft release their quarterly reports, traders on Kalshi are predicting how many rides the two app based riding services have recorded.
Nearly 45% of traders project total rides for Lyft's first quarter will be above 245 million. The app recorded 243.5 million rides in the fourth quarter of 2025. That was more than 10 million below expectations and sent the stock nearly 17% lower upon release in February.
The company has broken into new markets, such as acquiring a global chauffeuring service last fall. The rideshare app also launched teen accounts across the country, over two years after Uber. Last year, it bought European taxi app Freenow for about $200 million.
As for Uber, predictions may be a tad tempered.
Kalshi data shows traders see an 88% chance that Uber will report more than 3.6 billion trips as of the end of Q1. To be sure, that would be below the 3.8 billion reported in the fourth quarter. It would also be just below the StreetAccount consensus of 3.69 billion.
Uber referred to Q4 as a "record-breaking" quarter, with over 200 million monthly users completing more than 40 million trips daily.
Uber recently announced it's spreading beyond riding services, such as hotel bookings and shopping. The ridesharing giant has already expanded to grocery delivery services and is partnering with Joby Aviation to provide all-electric riding services, in the air.Â
Unlike the traditional binary event contracts, users are betting on multiple markets and deciding how many rides each rideshare app has.
Uber is scheduled to report earnings before the bell Wednesday. Lyft's report is set for release Thursday after the bell.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.