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S&P 500 posts fourth winning day, rising on hopes for last-minute Iran ceasefire: Live updates

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 31, 2026 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

The S&P 500 rose on Monday for a fourth session as oil prices teetered and traders hoped that the U.S.-Iran war could end soon.

The broad market index added 0.44% to close at 6,611.83, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.54% and ended at 21,996.34. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed about 165.21 points, or 0.36%, to settle at 46,669.88.

Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators were discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, though the chances for reaching a partial deal before the Tuesday deadline were slim. To be sure, a 45-day ceasefire is just one of the many ideas being floated.

Reuters also reported that Iran and the U.S. have received a plan to end hostilities that, if agreed, would result in an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The framework, which could come into effect on Monday, was put together by Pakistan, an unnamed source told Reuters.

President Donald Trump echoed his stance on Monday that the U.S. will destroy Iran's power plants and bridges if the Middle Eastern country does not reopen the Strait by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday. He had warned about striking that infrastructure on Sunday.

The president also said that while he wants to take Iran's oil, he "won't go further."

"What would I like to do? Take the oil, because it's there for the taking," he continued. "There's not a thing they can do about it. Unfortunately, the American people would like to see us come home."

Oil prices whipsawed in volatile trading at the start of the week. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate contract for May ticked up 0.78% to close at $112.41 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude prices edged 0.68% higher to settle at $109.77 per barrel.

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, similarly remained elevated following Trump's comments. It was last above 24.

"The market may be underestimating the magnitude of the disruption in the world economy," said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments. The "immediate and intermediate impact of the energy disruption is, I think, likely to be under appreciated by the markets, meaning energy prices staying higher for longer."

Correction: The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week. A previous version misstated the gain.

Stocks close higher

The three leading U.S. indexes finished in the green on Monday.

The S&P 500 was up 0.44% to end the day at 6,611.83, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.54% to 21,996.34. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 165.21 points, or 0.36%, to 46,669.88.

— Sean Conlon

Twilio could gain ground due to AI voice tech stack proliferation, Jefferies says

Piotr Swat | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Twilio has room to run as adoption of artificial intelligence technology stacks grows, according to Jefferies. 

The investment firm upgraded the customer engagement platform stock to buy from hold. It also raised its price target on shares to $160 from $125, implying 22% upside from Thursday's close. 

"We are upgrading TWLO to Buy as we have greater conviction in the role TWLO will play in the Voice AI tech stack," Jefferies analysts said Sunday in a note to clients. 

"Even a modest increase in traction can serve as a sustainable tailwind for…growth for years to come and drive upside to consensus," they added.

— Liz Napolitano

Crypto treasury firms outperform in crypto rally

Michael Saylor's Strategy and ether accumulator Bitmine, chaired by Fundstrat's Tom Lee, led the crypto sector to start the week. The firms jumped about 6% each.

Strategy also reported it has resumed bitcoin purchases in the past week, after a pause the week prior.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies reporting almost 4% ownership of ETH token supply. It has a goal of acquiring, holding and staking 5% of the total supply.

— Tanaya Macheel

Wall Street kicks off coverage of Softbank-backed PayPay with bullish ratings

Wall Street has initiated coverage of the Japanese payments stock PayPay, which was launched by SoftBank as part of a joint venture and made its U.S. trading debut last month, with bullish ratings.

Bank of America and Jefferies each have buy ratings on the stock, while Wolfe Research and Mizuho kicked off their coverage with outperform ratings. Jefferies has a $28 price target on the stock, while the others each see it rising to $26 per share. Its previous closing price was about $21.

"We see a clear path for continued growth and margin expansion, driven by its diverse product portfolio," which includes payments, credit, banking, and investments, Wolfe analyst Darrin Peller said in a note. Wolfe expects PayPay to sustain high-teens revenue growth or more over the medium term, driven by consumers' continuing to switch away from cash, more online shopping, and people using more of its financial services.

Bank of America also pointed to the company's network of 70 million users and 7 mullion merchant locations, and highlighted that PayPay, which has just become profitable for the first time, is shifting focus from getting users to making money from them.

— Tanaya Macheel

Boot Barn pops after Jefferies says to buy stock

Boot Barn Western & Work Wear Store in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
HUM Images | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Boot Barn shares surged on Monday after Jefferies recommended buying the dip on the Western wear retailer's stock.

Analyst Corey Tarlowe upgraded shares to buy from hold. Tarlowe's $195 price target implies more than 44% upside over where the stock ended last week.

Shares jumped more than 8% in midday Monday trading. But the stock is still down around 17% in 2026, on track to snap a three-year win streak.

"The stock has de-rated despite continued top-line resilience, sustained new store growth, and stable fundamentals," Tarlowe wrote in a Monday note to clients. "Despite macro fears, and following the sell-off, we see more favorable risk-reward from here, with upside to earnings and the stock."

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Boot Barn, 1-day

— Alex Harring

8 stocks in the S&P 500 trade at new 52-week highs

On Monday, eight stocks in the S&P 500 traded at new 52-week highs.

Tickers that hit this milestone included:

  • Bunge trading at levels not seen since January 2008
  • Hologic trading at levels not seen since December 2024
  • Ciena Corp trading at levels not seen since May 2001
  • Lumentum trading at all-time highs back to its IPO in August 2015
  • Seagate trading at all-time highs back to its IPO in December 2002
  • Equinix trading at all-time high levels back to its IPO in August 2000
  • CMS Energy trading at all-time high levels back to when it began trading at the NYSE in October 1987
  • Entergy trading at all-time high levels back through our history to 1972

Just one stock in the index traded at new 52-week lows: Keurig Dr Pepper.

— Lisa Kailai Han and Christopher Hayes

Stocks making midday moves: AppLovin, Invesco, Encompass Health

Here are some of the companies seeing the biggest moves in midday trading:

  • AppLovin — The mobile app marketing services saw shares jump 5% on the heels of a couple bullish Wall Street reports. BTIG raised its first-quarter estimates for AppLovin to above consensus, citing "healthier sequential performance from non-gaming marketers." The firm now sees first-quarter revenue coming in at $1.82 billion, versus its earlier estimate of $1.773 billion and AppLovin's guidance of $1.745 billion to $1.775 billion. Wedbush also reiterated its outperform rating on AppLovin, highlighting the company's generative artificial intelligence advertising suite as an upcoming catalyst.
  • Invesco — The asset manager dropped nearly 5% after BlackRock filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to create an alternative to Invesco's lucrative QQQ Trust, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100 index.
  • Encompass Health — The provider of post-acute healthcare services jumped more than 6% after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed a 2.4% rate increase for the government's fiscal year 2027 under the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility (IRF) Prospective Payment System (PPS).

Read the full list here.

— Davis Giangiulio

Buy the McDonald’s dip, Oppenheimer says

Signage at a McDonald's restaurant in Richmond, Virginia, US, on Monday, Nov. 3, 2025.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

McDonald's is off nearly 10% since its late February high. It's another opportunity to get in one of Oppenheimer's top picks, the bank said.

Oppenheimer reiterated its outperform rating on the stock and its $355 price target, which indicates a more than 15% gain from Thursday's close. This month's revamp of the company's McValue platform and an upcoming beverage platform launch could be catalysts for the stock, analyst Brian Brittner wrote in a Sunday note. 

"Underappreciated unit growth, healthy Int'l.-SSS," same store sales, "and improving margin visibility are also pillars of our thesis," Brittner wrote. "Pushback will focus on 'health trends' and valuation, but we believe potential idiosyncratic tailwinds in medium-term are too powerful to ignore."

McDonald's shares rose nearly 1% on Monday.

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MCD year-to-date chart.

— Davis Giangiulio

Hassett says he still expects the Fed to lower rates after Warsh takes chair

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday he still thinks the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates even with surging energy costs.

In a CNBC interview, Hassett said that once the supply shock from oil passes, technology-induced productivity gains will keep inflation in check and give the Fed room to support the economy with easier monetary policy.

Capital spending and boosts from artificial intelligence "puts downward, downward pressure on inflation, and that should take the pressure off the Fed," he said. "They should be able to lower rates, and I expect that's what's going to happen when my friend, Kevin Warsh, gets in there."

— Jeff Cox

BlackRock launching QQQ competitor

The BlackRock logo is displayed at the company's headquarters in New York City on Nov. 14, 2022.
Leonardo Munoz | Getty Images

BlackRock plans to launch an exchange-traded fund that will track the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, competing with the Invesco QQQ Trust.

The world's largest asset manager filed for the ETF's approval from the Securities and Exchange commission Monday. The fund will trade under the ticker IQQ.

"Expanding access to the Nasdaq-100 is intended to be additive, supporting investors by improving the efficiency, liquidity, and availability of benchmark-linked exposure across markets and product types," Nasdaq said in a statement following the filing.

Invesco's popular ETF has been on the market since 1999 and has $376 billion in assets under management.

— Michelle Fox

ISM services index below forecast as prices spike and hiring tumbles

The services sector saw a sharp contraction in employment and a spike in prices but still managed to expand in March as the U.S. went to war against Iran, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday.

The ISM services index slipped to 54 for the month, down 2.1 points from February and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 55.4, but still above the 50 line between expansion and contraction.

Within the survey, there were several trouble points: The prices index spiked to 70.7, up 7.7 points to its highest since October 2022, while the employment index plunged 6.6 points to 45.2, its lowest since December 2023.

New orders overall edged higher to 60.6 though new export orders slumped 6.5 points to 50.7. Business activity fell 6 points to 53.9 while imports rose to 55.2, an increase of 3.4 points.

— Jeff Cox

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says S&P 500 is carving out a low

Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson said U.S. equities may be in the process of forming a near-term floor, urging investors to begin selectively adding risk after a bruising stretch for stocks.

"We believe the S&P 500 is carving out a low and think it makes sense to start adding length in cyclical and quality growth trades where earnings remain strong, valuation has compressed, and sentiment is negative," he wrote in a note to clients.

He highlighted cyclical sectors and quality growth names as the most attractive opportunities, singling out financials and consumer discretionary companies alongside mega-cap technology firms — particularly hyperscalers — as top targets.

Wilson, who has been cautious on equities in recent years, suggested the recent pullback has compressed valuations enough to warrant gradually rebuilding exposure in select segments tied to economic growth and durable earnings trends.

— Yun Li

S&P 500, Nasdaq open higher Monday

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite kicked off the first trading day of the week in positive territory.

The broad market index traded higher by 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 35 points, or 0.1%, however.

— Sean Conlon

Bitcoin touches $70,000 amid short squeeze

A Bitcoin sign is displayed on the wall of developers Ciprés and Rilea Group, who have sold a condominium unit in the Rider Residences, an under-construction project in Midtown Miami, using Bitcoin in a direct wallet-to-wallet transaction on July 16, 2025, in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Bitcoin briefly rose above $70,000 to start the week, a level not seen in almost two weeks, according to Coin Metrics. It was last trading higher by more than 3% at $69,595.42.

Overnight macro headlines pushed prices higher, sparking a wave of short liquidations that peaked around 5 a.m. ET, according to CoinGlass. About $154.43 million was liquidated over the past 24 hours.

Crypto stocks rose in tandem in premarket trading. Strategy jumped nearly 4%, while Coinbase and Circle advanced about 3% each.

— Tanaya Macheel

'The next hurdle for this market is the next Trump deadline for a deal with Iran this Tuesday evening,' Raymond James says

A couple of factors may have prevented stocks from seeing greater losses in the wake of the Iran war breaking out, but a key test for the market is on the horizon, according to Raymond James.

"The question every institutional investor is asking themselves seems to be why we haven't sold off harder, or had anything remotely close to a 'capitulation' day after 5 weeks of Hormuz being effectively closed. I'm as surprised as anyone, but my best guess is very strong economic momentum in early 2026 (including March data released last week), and an oil curve that is quite 'backwardated', which seems to be soothing credit and equity markets,' wrote Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at the firm, in a note dated Sunday.

"The next hurdle for this market is the next Trump deadline for a deal with Iran this Tuesday evening," he continued.

— Sean Conlon

Netflix, Soleno Therapeutics, Twilio among the stocks making moves before the bell

Check out the companies making the biggest moves premarket:

  • Netflix — The streaming platform climbed 1.5% after a Goldman Sachs upgrade to buy from neutral. The bank said it sees Netflix as continuing to be the leader in content acquisition and development, and a high chance for multiyear capital return back to shareholders.
  • Soleno Therapeutics — Shares surged nearly 40% after Neurocrine Biosciences announced an agreement to acquire the company for $53 per share in cash, valuing the deal at around $2.9 billion. Neurocrine said Soleno will help expand its medicine portfolio and strengthen its position as a leader in endocrinology and rare disease.
  • Twilio — Shares rose more than 3% after an upgrade by Jefferies to buy from hold, saying Twilio will be critical in the development and production of voice artificial intelligence.

Read here for the full list.

— Davis Giangiulio

Soleno Therapeutics surges on Neurocrine deal

Thomas Fuller | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Shares of Soleno Therapeutics surged 39% before being halted on news the company will be acquired by Neurocrine for $2.9 billion in cash, or $53 per share.

"This transaction will advance Neurocrine's mission to deliver life-changing treatments while accelerating our revenue growth and portfolio diversification strategy. We share the Soleno team's deep commitment to the Prader-Willi syndrome community and look forward to leveraging our experience and capabilities to expand VYKAT XR's reach to benefit more patients, while further strengthening Neurocrine's leadership in delivering transformative medicines," Neurocrine CEO Kyle Gano said in a press release.

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SLNO 5-day chart

The deal is expected to close within 90 days of Monday's announcement.

— Fred Imbert

JPMorgan's Dimon points to risks in geopolitics, AI and private markets in annual letter

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., attends the ribbon-cutting ceremony opening the firm’s new headquarters at 270 Park Avenue, in New York City, U.S., October 21, 2025.
Eduardo Munoz | Reuters

In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called for a broad recommitment to American ideals as his bank navigates geopolitical worries, a teetering economy and the impact of AI.

"The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China," Dimon said. "Even in troubled times, we have confidence that America do what it has always done — look to the values that have defined our singular nation and sustained our leadership of the free world."

Read the full story here.

— Sara Salinas

Trump’s Iran ultimatum and signals of a possible deal keep investors on tenterhooks

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on March 18, 2026 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Investors are caught between positioning for a swift deal that ends the war and a significant escalation that could send oil prices and bond yields soaring further as they start a holiday-thinned trading week.

President Donald Trump issued a profanity-laden ultimatum on Sunday, warning Iran it would be "living in Hell" if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened by Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET, declaring it "Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one."

Conflicting signals have set up a week in which investors are forced to position for starkly divergent outcomes.

Read the full story here.

— Anniek Bao.

Trump vows Iran will be 'living in Hell' if Strait of Hormuz is not open by Tuesday

US President Donald Trump during a prime-time address to the nation in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.
Alex Brandon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President Donald Trump on Sunday, in a social media post laden with expletives, vowed to strike Iran's power plants and bridges. He vowed the "crazy bastards" would be "living in Hell" if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened to all marine traffic by Tuesday, just hours after announcing the U.S. had rescued the final airman shot down in Iran last week.

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!" Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Crude prices were higher following the post. Read more.

— Garrett Downs and Azhar Sukri

Stock futures open lower

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 253 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

— Fred Imbert