Why traders are getting nervous about Iran's $200 oil warning as the conflict drags on

Published Mon, Mar 16 20268:37 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Mar 16 20262:30 PM EDT

Sam Meredith @in/samuelmeredith @smeredith19

Key Points

Analysts told CNBC that the prospect of oil prices soaring to $200 per barrel shouldn’t be ruled out as the Iran war drags on.
It follows a stark oil price warning from Iran last week and as Tehran pledges to continue blocking shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
“I don’t think it’s ridiculous at all to be $200,” said Greg Newman, group CEO of Onyx Capital Group.

Energy analysts and traders said Monday that they wouldn't be surprised if oil prices climb to as high as $200 per barrel as the sprawling Middle East crisis drags on. It comes as the U.S. and Israeli-led war on Iran continues to disrupt oil production and shipping in the region , with traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz effectively grinding to a halt in recent weeks. The Strait of Hormuz is a key narrow maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it. Iran, as well as pledging to continue blocking the waterway as a "tool to pressure the enemy," has issued a stark warning about what this could mean for oil prices. "Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised," Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran's military command, said on March 11, according to Reuters. Greg Newman, group CEO of Onyx Capital Group, said Monday that the fallout from the ongoing supply shock means oil prices could soon climb to much higher levels. "Brent is just one proxy. We've got hundreds and hundreds of contracts reflecting all of the physical prices around the world. The Middle Eastern benchmark ... just reached $150 per barrel," Newman told CNBC's Ben Boulos from the trading floor. "So, it is already there. Can Brent crude catch up from an investor's perspective? That's what we would expect," Newman said. "We're very much in the $150 range but I don't think it's ridiculous at all to [suggest] $200. It would be very fair given we are basically having a crisis a day right now equivalent to supply outages," he added. International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded flat at $103.16 per barrel on Monday morning, paring earlier gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery, meanwhile, dipped 1.7% to $96.95, having surpassed $100 earlier in the session. Both contracts have surged more than 50% over the past month, reaching their highest levels since 2022, as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted. Brent closed above $100 for the first time in four years last week. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday demanded the help of other countries to secure the Strait of Hormuz, saying the maritime passage benefits them more than it does Washington. "Why are we maintaining the Hormuz Strait when it's really there for China and many other countries? Why aren't they doing it?" Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. "Ahead of this conflict, before it started, I thought things looked great for markets this year and they looked great for the global economy," Chris Watling, global economist and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, told CNBC's " Squawk Box Europe " on Monday. "The problem is you're in a binary situation now. I wouldn't be surprised if oil went to 200 bucks, or even 250, because commodity prices go parabolic when there's a shortage of supply," Watling said. "So, in that environment, there's serious damage to the global economy and you completely change your portfolio," he continued. "The point is, you're one end or the other of the spectrum. So, what you do with that? You have to be very nimble, I think, basically, and adjust your risk positions very quickly. And, of course, some people can't do that, so it becomes very difficult." 'A long-lasting situation' Not everyone expects oil prices to reach the dizzying heights of $200, with many analysts pointing out that the energy market appeared to be well supplied before the conflict began on Feb. 28. Strategists at UBS, for example, said they expect Brent crude oil prices to trade at $90 by the end of June, up from a previous forecast of $65 over the same time horizon, and $85 by year-end, up from $67. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, reportedly said late last week that they expect Brent crude prices to average more than $100 this month, with the average dipping to $85 in April. The Wall Street bank did warn of the potential for major price spikes over the coming weeks, however, if shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz persists. When looking ahead, Felipe Elink Schuurman, co-founder and CEO of Sparta, said oil traders should try to make a distinction between the short-term and midterm price outlook. "The oil market will react very quickly depending on if this keeps going or if it gets resolved very shortly," Schuurman told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday. "On a midterm basis, one should not expect prices to come off to where [they were] anytime soon. This is going to take many months to restore, particularly as I said on the product side of things, so jet, gasoline, diesel, all petrochemical products. So, this is going to be a long-lasting situation," he added. Correction: Strategists at UBS said they expect Brent crude oil prices to trade at $85 by year-end, up from $67. An earlier version misstated a figure.