‘Resource nationalism’ could propel gold to $5,000 and silver to $100 this year, investors say

Published Wed, Jan 14 20262:51 AM EST

Key Points

Gold and silver both saw record-smashing rallies last year that market watchers expect will continue into 2026.
One factor driving the upward price movement is "resource nationalism," according to Evelyn Partners' Daniel Casali, with the U.S. and China both trying to gain leverage through control of critical resources.
Silver is widely used in manufacturing, and China placed export controls on the metal in December.

Gold and silver ended 2025 on a high after record-smashing runs and money managers are betting on the metals hitting new milestones this year as supply constraints, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about central bank independence fuel demand. On Monday, gold hit a record high of more than $4,600 an ounce following news that Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is under criminal investigation relating to the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters. By the early hours of Wednesday morning, spot gold had risen further to trade at around $4,633.46 an ounce. Meanwhile, spot silver , which broke above the $90 threshold for the first time on Tuesday, was last seen trading 3.5% higher at $90.42 per ounce. XAU= YTD line Gold price 'Resource nationalism' driving metals higher Daniel Casali, a partner in investment strategy at British wealth manager Evelyn Partners, said on Tuesday that his team is very positive on both gold and silver. Geopolitical instability — such as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and U.S. President Donald Trump's so-called "liberation day" tariffs announcements last April — had created uncertainty that continued to support gold prices, he said. As major powers continued to shore up the tools in their trade war toolboxes, Casali said an environment of "resource nationalism" was emerging that was continuing to boost precious metal markets. "When Trump started to raise tariffs, China started to respond, so they pulled out what I would define as a battle between the U.S. and China of resource nationalism," he told CNBC on a call. "China responded [to liberation day] by restricting rare earth exports — and what the U.S. discovered is that those rare earths are absolutely essential for their defense, their technology, for AI, you name it," he added. "And then … fast forward a little bit, and we have export restrictions on silver. And again, silver is essential for AI technology, EVs, renewables, it's a critical part of industrial production in the U.S. and the West." Casali said investors are now waiting to see the outcome of a potential in-person meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi in April. "How that goes? No idea," he said. "But you bet your bottom dollar [export controls] are going to be a key discussion point." In just the first week of 2026, a U.S. ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and talk from the White House about potential military action to bring Greenland under its control have put more at stake politically and added to the uncertainty underpinning the precious metal rally. "Both presidents are positioning their countries to try and [gain] leverage against the other party," Casali said of U.S. and Chinese leadership. "China will have their exports of rare earths and silver, among other things. And what Trump is doing now is trying to restrict resources that go to China, like Venezuelan oil — most of their energy goes to China, and Trump wants U.S. companies controlling that oil." "There are all these geopolitical chess pieces going round, but I think the key message here is resource nationalism can force up gold and silver prices," he said. $100 silver, $5,000 gold? Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, Ned Naylor-Leyland, an investment manager in Jupiter Asset Management's gold and silver team, said it was "absolutely" possible for gold to touch on the $5,000 mark this year and for silver to surpass the $100 milestone. Based on the underlying factors driving the metals higher, investors "should assume that that would definitely happen this year," he added. In 2025, spot gold surged around 65% higher, smashing multiple price records over the course of the year, while silver gained around 150%. Gold is currently up by 7.1% year-to-date, while silver has already gained a further 26.6% since the start of 2026. Naylor-Leyland told CNBC he sees gold following a similar trajectory this year, with silver being the outperformer once again in 2026. Like Casali, he pointed to shortages of physical silver catalyzed by Beijing's export controls last year. "Silver is basically disappearing now to China and India — there's about a $10 premium being paid in Shanghai," he said, adding that the silver market is now all about physical bars, which implies that the price can go "substantially" higher. "If we continue to see this is very, very wide spread between the price paid in Shanghai and the price on the screen in the West, then the remaining physical silver that is lying around — whether it's in the futures market in New York or in London — should continue to head east." XAG= 1Y line Silver price Silver is an essential component in goods across industries, and is used in the manufacturing of computers, cell phones, cars and household appliances. "The thing about silver is, if you don't have it, you can't build anything," Naylor-Leyland said. "Whether it's electronics or white goods or missiles or cars, you don't have it, you can't have it." On gold, Naylor-Leyland said the yellow metal was likely to continue its rise due to wider geopolitical uncertainty. "The base case with gold is presuming [central banks] remain dovish, which seems very likely, that should support continued higher U.S. dollar gold prices," he said. "We're in a rate-cutting environment with unconventional policies and chasing down chairman Powell. Unless we get policy reversal and they go hawkish and start hiking, you can expect gold to do pretty much what it did last year or more — this is a debasement observation, and it's still very much in play." Paul Syms, head of EMEA ETF fixed income and commodity product management at Invesco, also told CNBC that the trends that pushed the metals higher last year were possibly even more prevalent now. "The statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday regarding the investigation into his testimony about the renovation of the Federal Reserve building and the rationale behind it has increased concern about the independence of the Fed and US monetary policy and spurred further interest in Gold as a perceived safe haven asset and inflation hedge," he said in an email. A dozen global central bankers, including the heads of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, defended Powell in a statement on Tuesday, saying they stood in "full solidarity" with the Fed and its chair. "While Gold and Silver are close to all-time highs, there does not appear to be any catalyst in the near term that is likely to cause prices to drop," Syms told CNBC. "Indeed, ongoing concerns about the U.S. dollar, budget deficits (in the US and other developed markets), the outlook for lower rates at a time when geopolitical tensions remain high and, for silver, increasing industrial demand, all appear likely to provide a supportive backdrop for precious metals."