The market expects Space X, OpenAI and Anthropic to go public this year — but is it willing to pay?

Published Tue, Jan 6 20264:47 AM EST

Key Points

Investors expect SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic to float this year.
The technology companies are worth $800 billion, $500 billion, and $350 billion, respectively.
Market watchers are split on whether investors will be willing to buy in at such high valuations.

Highly anticipated public listings of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are expected this year, but questions remain over whether investors are willing to pay such hefty price tags in line with their valuations. Elon Musk's SpaceX notched an $800 billion valuation in a secondary share sale in December, according to a letter to shareholders sent by the company's finance chief, which was reviewed by Reuters. It was widely rumored that the space technology company had plans to go public in 2026 and Musk confirmed the reports last month . OpenAI, which completed its own secondary share sale valuing it at $500 billion in October, is rumored to be targeting a $1 trillion float on the stock market. Anthropic, which is also thought to be prepping for an IPO and sets itself apart from OpenAI by its tighter spending and model efficiency, earned a price tag of up to $350 billion in a November round backed by Microsoft and Nvidia . Any listings of this scale would be "a big market event," Samuel Kerr, who heads up equity capital markets at Mergermarket, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday. "The largest IPO we've had globally has been Saudi Aramco, which was a very Saudi Arabia story with a lot of Middle Eastern investors involved in," he said. "OpenAI is going to be something completely different." Saudi Aramco earned a valuation of $1.88 trillion when it went public in 2019 . These "massive, attractive private companies" eyeing the IPO market represent a fundamental shift in the trend of companies staying private for longer , which emerged over the last few years, Kerr said. Previously, companies wanted to protect their IP, and that is difficult to do as a public company because reporting requirements are much greater. Now, the level of investment they need to fund their growth ambitions, many of which are to do with AI, is pushing them to list publicly. A possible valuation gap OpenAI's scale and sprawl means a disappointing debut "could be a huge problem" for the whole AI sector, the way investors trade it, and the valuations companies earn, Kerr said. The valuation gap could be wide if OpenAI is eyeing $1 trillion, according to Nick Patience, who leads AI coverage at The Futurum Group. The figure relates to a "perfection scenario that assumes AGI is imminent," Patience told CNBC, referring to artificial general intelligence, which is understood as the point at which artificial systems reach human capabilities. "Plus, there will be questions about governance and control, especially with Microsoft's stake. Investors will want clarity on the path to profitability outside of enterprise deals and how it manages the massive compute costs. It could become the AI bellwether, for better or worse," he said. Meanwhile, Anthropic, which was founded by a group of former OpenAI staffers, offers risk-averse pension funds and conservative allocators an alternative AI play, Patience added. "This is the enterprise safety hedge, with a much lower valuation than OpenAI and a narrative not about AGI magic but enterprise reliability and safety." The Musk premium SpaceX, however, "is going to be the one deal that everybody wants to buy," according to Kerr, because it has no clear space technology competitor. "Perhaps, just on that hype alone, SpaceX might be able to achieve a $1.5 trillion valuation," he said. Achieving such a valuation, however, may hinge on the success of its satellite arm Starlink, and its Starship rockets. "Starlink has effectively matured into a global utility with recurring revenue, and institutional investors will see this as an infrastructure play, similar to a telecom or defense stock, but with growth multiples," Patience said. "The retail Musk Premium will likely drive a massive pop on day one, but the long-term hold is based on those recurring revenues and even the space-based data center narrative that emerged last year, though that's a long way out." Either way, the listings offer a better way to know how much a business is worth and offers a benchmark for comparison. Read more DeepSeek blew up markets year ago. Why hasn't it done so since? Nvidia wants to power robotaxi fleets with chips, software by 2027 Democratic mayor of Silicon Valley's largest city opposes billionaire tax "What happens to the price of the stock after the IPO is another question altogether," Anna Rathbun, founder and CEO of Grenadilla Advisory, told CNBC. Last year, "did not have a good record of debut prices holding up after the IPO, which gives us a clue as to what the public market thinks of the private market valuations." "A company like SpaceX, which is so unique may hold up well because of lack of comparables, but I think the post IPO price movement will be a test for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other LLM companies," she added. The flow of money For Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, "the market is generally willing to pay up if the prize is big enough." SpaceX and OpenAI are huge prizes, he said. "The chance to get a piece of a game-changing technology will be too good to miss for many investors." "On current numbers, both are candidates for some of the largest listed companies in the world," he added. Given that going public is a fundraising mechanism, the next question is where companies will empty their coffers. "We expect a significant portion to go toward custom silicon development and energy infrastructure. The IPO that outlines the clearest path to owning their own compute stack will be the winner in the long run," Patience said, noting that this reduces a company's reliance on hyperscalers. Market watchers also have their eyes on related names, as investors may rotate money from existing AI bets to OpenAI and Anthropic. The Magnificent 7 index — consisting of Apple , Microsoft , Nvidia , Tesla , Meta , Alphabet , and Amazon — is up more than 17% over the past year, but its overperformance could be down to market concentration. "With more IPOs on the horizon, public market investors will have more options for investing in AI as a theme. It's healthy for the public markets, for everyday investors," said Rathbun. That said, nothing is set in stone as AI bubble chatter persists. "If we see a bout of serious correction or multiple contractions, the incentive to IPO may change for the private investors," she added. "We need to pay attention to the public market multiples to gauge the IPO activity of these tech companies."