CNBC Sport: In Thanksgiving NFL games, prediction platforms could win big

Published Thu, Nov 27 202510:00 AM EST

Alex Sherman @in/alex-sherman @sherman4949

Contessa Brewer @contessabrewer

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Key Points

Prediction market volume is on track to be almost $10 billion this month between Kalshi and Polymarket, according to research firm Piper Sandler.
NFL-related contracts have accounted for about $1.24 billion of that volume so far, or about 28% of the total, Piper Sandler estimates.
For Thursday afternoon's Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup, both teams hail from states that haven't legalized mobile sports betting.
Wisconsin also hasn't legalized, and the Green Packers play the Detroit Lions at 1 p.m. ET.

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sport newsletter with Alex Sherman, which brings you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the worlds of sports business and media. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox. To borrow a line from Scott Galloway 's recent No Mercy / No Malice newsletter , "America's pastime isn't baseball but gambling." Galloway links to a New York Times article last year citing Nate Silver 's book "On the Edge," which estimates the total wagers placed by Americans every year is more than $1 trillion. Silver became an advisor last year to prediction market startup Polymarket , which, along with Kalshi, has suddenly become quite relevant to sports fans this year. Prediction market volume is on track to be almost $10 billion this month between Kalshi and Polymarket, according to research firm Piper Sandler. NFL-related contracts have accounted for about $1.24 billion of that volume so far, or about 28% of the total, Piper Sandler estimates. Many of you reading this right now may be getting ready to open up Kalshi or Robinhood (via Kalshi) to use the prediction markets for today's three NFL games and a fourth tomorrow on Black Friday. Polymarket had been effectively banned from the U.S. but just got clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission this week . Thirty states have legalized mobile sports betting, leaving 20 states still waiting for their turn. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley told CNBC that prediction markets action spikes involving teams that reside in states that haven't legalized gambling. "This is going to be a big week for prediction markets," Moley said in an interview. "You have three NFL games that are going to be played on Thanksgiving. Three of the teams that are playing are in states where sports betting is illegal. And what we've seen so far in the NFL season is that when you have a team that's in a market where sports betting is illegal, we see a volume bump." For Thursday afternoon's Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup, both teams hail from states that haven't legalized mobile sports betting. Given the popularity of the teams, I'd imagine there's a good chance that game sets NFL volume records for prediction contracts. Wisconsin also hasn't legalized, and the Green Packers play the Detroit Lions at 1 p.m. ET. Now, pair that with what will likely be record TV audiences, and you've got a prime setup for a huge betting day across the board – not just on prediction markets, but also DraftKings, FanDuel and other sportsbooks. NFL games have averaged 17.7 million viewers through Week 11. That's up 6% from last year and the highest average through Week 11 since 2015, The Athletic's Richard Deitsch reported this week . "Of the top 65 shows on linear television since the start of the 2025 season, the NFL is responsible for 60 of those broadcasts," Deitsch wrote. Thanksgiving games (particularly when Dallas is playing) are almost always the most-watched regular season games, setting up that Chiefs-Cowboys game to maybe even reach 50 million U.S. households. My colleague Contessa Brewer has repeatedly written about the rise of prediction markets for this very newsletter – including on the argument that it's not the same as traditional gambling. To sum up very quickly, Kalshi and Polymarket executives claim the companies aren't casinos or online sportsbooks (and therefore shouldn't be regulated as such) because they're offering futures contracts rather than placing odds or playing the role of bookie. The CFTC hasn't issued a ruling on the matter yet, and the conspicuous silence has led the sports gambling industry to view prediction markets as a clever workaround to appeal to sports bettors across the U.S. That's led DraftKings, FanDuel and merchandising giant Fanatics to develop their own plans to enter the predictions market — soon. Interestingly, while today's games may jolt November higher, NFL contract volumes over the past two months haven't steadily risen. One might think that word of mouth would lift the industry higher, in terms of trading volume, each week. Instead, volumes seem to be correlated to game idiosyncrasies, such as overtime, narrow leads and, as mentioned, the locations of the teams playing. That may be a bit ominous for the future popularity of prediction markets. It's possible the phenomenon has hit a bit of a wall, and it's going to take many millions of marketing dollars to push volumes higher as a slew of new competitors are about to enter the market. Or, perhaps five Thanksgivings from now, we'll be looking back at this one as when sports betting truly took over the country, with the surge of new platforms marking the beginning of a new era. Oh, sorry, not betting. Investing! *** Also, a little bit of news this week on Netflix. The world's largest online streamer and feared bogeyman (along with YouTube) of traditional media companies is taking yet another baby step into sports. Netflix is in the process of hiring Elle Duncan from ESPN to be the company's front-person for its live sporting events – and maybe some live non-sports events as well. The New York Times' Andrew Marchand first broke the story earlier this week. Typically, I wouldn't spend too much time writing about personnel moves in this newsletter, but this one is more significant than most. Netflix has sometimes struggled to convince other media companies to lend it talent for sporting events – largely, to this point, Christmas NFL games, both last year and this year. Netflix just inked a deal with MLB giving it the Home Run Derby and an Opening Night game in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Netflix wants Duncan to play the old Bob Costas role on NBC – the gatekeeper to all sports. I'm told the Netflix deal for Duncan is more money than she was making at Disney for a lot less work. That sounds like a pretty sweet deal. Netflix and Duncan may also agree on a future podcast deal down the road, though it would be separate from this agreement. Duncan will also be free to find new gigs in the in-between times as she waits for Netflix's live events. It's possible Duncan may even be freed up from ESPN in time for this year's Netflix Christmas games, depending on if Disney allows her to leave her contract early. Duncan's contract is up at the end of the year. Netflix began thinking about hiring in-house talent about a year ago and first broached the subject with Duncan around this year's Super Bowl, I'm told. There's little doubt Netflix will be making more sports-related broadcasting hires in the future, and I'm told part of Duncan's choice to leave ESPN for Netflix was to get in on the ground floor of what could become an increasingly big part of the sports media ecosystem. On the record With golf superstar Rory McIlroy ... This week's On The Record guest is five-time major champion winner and golf superstar Rory McIlroy. Last week, my colleague Scott Wapner sat down with McIlroy and his business partner Todd Sisitsky to discuss their investment in TGL, which athletes McIlroy emulates in business, his recent Masters and Ryder Cup victories, and, of course, his latest thoughts on LIV Golf. McIlroy has been one of the most outspoken players on the PGA Tour about the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund-backed splinter tour. "It's been four or five years, and there hasn't been a return yet," said McIlroy on LIV's efforts. "They're going to have to keep spending that money to even just maintain what they have right now. A lot of these guys' contracts are up. They're going to ask for the same number, or even bigger numbers. So, LIV has spent $5 [billion] or $6 billion and they're going to have to spend another five or six. If I'm looking at the world of golf, I am way more comfortable being on the PGA Tour side than on their side." Still, McIlroy also said a merger of PGA and LIV didn't seem particularly close as LIV has become more entrenched. Last month, LIV CEO Scott O'Neil said the league brought in "half a billion" dollars worth of sponsorship deals so far this year. A spokesperson for LIV Golf declined to comment. McIlroy also weighed in on new PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp , who made news speaking with Scott at the same event when he acknowledged that big changes may be on the way in terms of the schedule for 2027, including starting the season after the Super Bowl and reducing the total number of tournaments from 39 this year to 20. "I think everyone on the PGA Tour feels like we're in a good place and trust that his guidance and leadership will position us in the right place," McIlroy said. You can watch that entire conversation here . Or listen here and follow the CNBC Sport podcast if you prefer the audio version. This week's audio version comes with a special introductory conversation with me and my colleague Mike Ozanian . Why? Keep reading! CNBC Sport highlight reel The best of CNBC Sport from the past week: Because Ozanian is out with his new NHL valuations list! You can find the entire list here . National Hockey League Commissioner Gary Bettman told CNBC this week that NHL franchises are still undervalued, despite the average team value reaching an average of $2.2 billion per team. That entire interview can be seen here . Bettman also said there's strong interest in NHL expansion, and any new teams would require a minimum $2 billion buy-in. Dick's Sporting Goods Executive Chairman Ed Stack spoke with "Squawk on the Street" this week about his company's recent acquisition of Foot Locker. "We're cleaning out the garage," Stack said. "We've got to get rid of all the old inventory that's there that hasn't worked very well." Dick's said during its fiscal third-quarter earnings report that it would be closing some Foot Locker stores to protect profits. Contessa's Corner Happy Thanksgiving, everybody! Sometimes, gaming means gambling. Sometimes, it means video gaming. And sometimes, it's a mash-up of both. Like when Roblox CEO David Baszucki sat down with the New York Times for a podcast interview and took what seemed like a joke-question seriously. Would he install a prediction market on the gaming platform? "It sounds very fun and obvious," Baszucki said. "I actually think it's a brilliant idea." The backlash to Baszucki's comments was swift and fierce. Already, the video game industry is facing regulatory crackdowns in some jurisdictions over so-called loot boxes offered in games – in which players pay real money for random prizes – because research has shown a correlation between those features and gambling problems among adolescents. Prediction markets in Roblox? What could go wrong? *** Today, it's the Thanksgiving holiday that gets Americans out on the road. But throughout the year, sports has become a major motivation in travel planning and spending, according to Expedia. The MVP in the world of sports travel is baseball, with travel searches spiking 100% for Los Angeles and Toronto on Hotels.com around World Series games this fall. During Super Bowl weekend in New Orleans in February, travelers for the big game paid on average $690 per night for hotels. And championship games (and those featured in the runup) give small markets some time in the spotlight. "Oklahoma City, Indianapolis, and Edmonton transformed into travel hotspots, rivaling major hubs like Miami and New Orleans during playoff runs," according to Expedia. I personally enjoyed seeing the home of the Brewers, and my old stomping grounds, with Milwaukee featured in the post-season. Whether you're traveling or staying put, I wish you and yours a very Happy Thanksgiving. The big number: $188 million The NHL team with the biggest profit this past year is the Edmonton Oilers, whose 2024-25 season EBITDA was $188 million. The Oilers had the league's biggest revenue, too, with $431 million generated this past season. And yet, the Oilers are fifth in overall value at $3.1 billion, trailing the Toronto Maple Leafs, the New York Rangers, the Montreal Canadiens and the Los Angeles Kings. Why? Because Edmonton isn't exactly in the biggest or most prestigious media market, Ozanian told me. That limits the team's value compared to a city such as Toronto, Montreal, New York or L.A. Quote of the Week "Nobody wants to work the Monday after the biggest game in football." -Seven-time Super Bowl winning quarterback Tom Brady wants the Monday after the Super Bowl to be a federal holiday , and he's declared his feelings in the most American way possible: in a TV commercial. Around the league Amazon has long been a consumer destination on Black Friday, but this year, it's taking engagement to another level. Amazon is broadcasting 15 hours of live sports programming on Prime Video, including an NFL game (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears), two NBA games (the Milwaukee Bucks vs. the New York Knicks at 7:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers at 10 p.m. ET), and the Capital One Skins Game, featuring golfers Keegan Bradley , Tommy Fleetwood , Shane Lowry and Xander Schauffele . The National Women's Soccer League has wrapped up its season with a Gotham FC 1-0 win over the Washington Spirit, and the league announced the game broke TV viewership records . The championship game averaged about 1.2 million viewers on CBS and Paramount+, making it the most-watched final in league history – up 22% over last year and 45% over 2023.