Piper Sandler is more bullish on Oscar Health after researching the company's performance in the Miami-Dade region, its largest county, for insight into what 2026 can bring. The investment firm upgraded the health tech provider to overweight from neutral. Analyst Jessica Tassan also hiked her price target to $25 from $13, which implies upside of 49%. As enhanced advance premium tax credits expire at the end of this year, Oscar Health expects that both its market share and margins will expand year over year, the analyst said. OSCR YTD mountain OSCR YTD chart "If the E-APTCs are allowed to expire at the end of CY25, OSCR believes Individual ACA Marketplace enrollment could decline (20.0%) to (30.0%) in CY26. This projection implies that the Individual ACA Market sheds ~6.1M lives y/y; with enrollment collapsing from ~24.3M in CY25 to ~18.2M in CY26," Tassan wrote. "It reflects the confluence of expiring E-APTCs and federal efforts to strengthen program integrity." In fact, not only did the company price for this to happen, it has also designed its products for the 2026 calendar year to perform in an adverse operating environment, the analyst added. Oscar launched, enhanced and expanded condition-specific offerings such as HelloMenu, aimed towards women in menopause. Tassan said that these products help reduce the company's underwriting risk, generate strong engagement and achieve superior clinical outcomes. "OSCR's CY26 product portfolio is structured for retention and priced for margin recapture. Most OSCR members will be able to buy-down to a similar plan at a different metal level in CY26," the analyst added. "This preserves provider/ care plan continuity, maintains coverage, and defrays some of the increased cash premium burden y/y." Meanwhile, Tassan also applauded the company's new bonus program, which rewards brokers and agents for high volumes of new sales booked in the month of November for a Jan. 1 coverage start date. "November tends to be the slowest month of [open enrollment period], where brokers/ agents have the most capacity for consultation," she added. "We think OSCR's new compensation paradigm will pull sales into November and ensure deliberate/ appropriate plan selection for CY26." Shares of Oscar Health have popped 24% this year.
