Shoppers are heading into this year's holiday season with a greater sense of apprehension. Persistent unease about the economy, inflation, and tariffs has many Americans quietly recalculating — asking not just what gifts to buy but what they can truly afford. The latest consumer surveys and annual holiday forecasts mirrored this trepidation heading into Black Friday — the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season — and followed by Cyber Week. The Conference Board's November confidence index slipped to its lowest reading since April. Similarly, the University of Michigan's sentiment gauge dropped to near all-time low levels. According to the 2025 Goldman Sachs holiday survey, 57% of consumers plan to spend the same or more on holiday gifts, a 2-percentage-point dip from last year; 43% intend to spend less this year, a 3-percentage point increase. The National Retail Federation expects a holiday spending gain of between 3.7% to 4.2% to over $1 trillion for the first time. The midpoint of 3.95%, however, represents slower growth compared to last year. The latest round of retail earnings — exemplified by Walmart , which is known for low prices — reflected these concerns across income brackets. During last week's post-earnings conference call, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said, "Upper and middle income households [are] driving our growth. We continue to benefit from higher-income families choosing to shop with us more often. Middle-income households have been steady, [and] lower-income families have been under additional pressure of late." While this kind of backdrop sets up retailers for a more subdued holiday quarter on paper, it could, for some, prove to be better than feared. For our portfolio retail holdings, Amazon , Costco , and TJX Companies , this season should highlight their individual strengths in a tougher economy. Here is a look at what Wall Street analysts — and the Club — are saying about how each could perform. Amazon: Club rating 1 (buy-equivalent) and $275 price target Amazon could emerge as the biggest beneficiary. Goldman's survey found that Amazon remains the top holiday shopping destination, projecting year-over-year market-share gains. With more and more consumers planning to use artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and MetaAI to find and evaluate gifts, Amazon's advanced recommendation systems and AI integration through its integrated conversational chatbot Rufus give it a competitive edge. Amazon also benefits from shoppers' reliance on online convenience and price comparison as consumers hunt for the best deals amid persistent inflation. "Amazon maintains a leading 46% share of U.S. e-commerce and enters the holiday season with strong momentum from early promotions, one-day delivery, and lower cost to serve," JPMorgan said in a note last week. According to the analysts, Amazon has a roughly 14% price advantage across 16 online categories, "further supporting demand and market-share gains." AMZN YTD mountain Amazon YTD Club take: Despite a more cautious consumer spending backdrop, we see Amazon's speed, selection, and the value of the Prime membership giving the company a clear edge. Jim Cramer said this week that Amazon's AI-powered retail business "can't be challenged." With Amazon positioned to capture additional market share in online retail, coupled with reaccelerated growth in its high-margin Amazon Web Services cloud business, as seen in the third quarter , the overall company — and stock — could be poised for further growth heading into year-end. Jim has also been defending Amazon stock, which surged to a record-high close two sessions after the company's late Oct. 30 earnings report. Since then, shares have lost more than 9%. TJX Companies: Club rating 1 and $160 price target TJX Companies — owner of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods — stands to benefit as cost-conscious consumers hunt for the kind of value that the off-price retailer provides via a broad selection of high-quality merchandise at deep discounts. Investors should already be feeling confident about TJX heading into the holidays after the company's beat-and-raise quarter . Analysts at Goldman said, "Off-price retailers gained relative share" among consumers planning holiday purchases. They highlighted "trade-down activity" as a factor influencing shoppers' gift-giving decisions. In a more muted holiday shopping environment, Goldman analysts said, "Market-share gains will accrue to retailers who offer strong value or great fashion." TJX has both. TJX YTD mountain TJX Companies YTD Club take: We continue to believe that the off-price giant is in a great position to weather weaker discretionary spending, thanks to its value proposition and inventory flexibility, especially with management's upbeat outlook toward the end of the year. TJX highlighted broad-based strength in spending across all income demographics during its earnings call last week. There's a reason why the stock has gained 28% this year, outperforming the broader market. TJX shares hit another all-time intraday high on Wednesday. Costco: Club rating 1 and $1,100 price target Costco's value-driven model is also poised to shine this holiday season. The warehouse retailer tends to thrive when consumers become more discerning. With consumers planning on spending less this year, Costco's low-price, bulk-buy proposition makes it a natural pick. In JPMorgan Chase's recent spending data through early November, activity showed spending in "other retail," which includes warehouse clubs, up 6.7% year-over-year versus October's 4.4% year-over-year growth. That signals steady demand even as broader discretionary spending softens. COST YTD mountain Costco YTD Club take: Costco's loyal membership base and reputation for value give it stability that few competitors can match. We believe Costco's model – built on volume, low prices, and great stuff – is one of the best-positioned retailers going into the holiday season. Costco has consistent member renewal rates and a growing younger customer mix. Costco stock has cooled recently, but fundamentals haven't. Jim sees Costco's recent weakness as more of a buying opportunity, rather than a warning sign, as its traditionally high price-to-earnings multiple has come down. We know that sales at Costco have been strong because, unlike most companies, it reports the figures monthly. Costco, which is usually one of the last companies out with earnings, is set to report on Dec. 11. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AMZN, TJX, COST. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
