Wall Street believes that winning retail stocks this holiday season could include Amazon , Walmart , TJX Companies and Burlington . In a note published Monday, a team of Goldman Sachs analysts led by Brooke Roach summarized its findings after surveying 1,000 U.S. consumers about their shopping plans this coming season. Roach reported that all signs indicate a "more measured" spending environment this year, with a smaller proportion of consumers indicating they still plan to spend the same or more on holiday purchases compared to 2024. "Optimism is increasingly concentrated among the higher-income consumer, while we observed relative pullback within low- and middle-income households. Our survey also revealed signs of value-seeking behavior — prices are perceived to be higher, promotions are more important, and shopping behaviors are increasingly shaped by trade-down activities," Roach wrote. "On balance, this suggests a still-healthy albeit less exuberant backdrop for holiday." This year, both online-only and discount channels remain the core shopping destination for the vast majority of consumers, Roach wrote. However, both these verticals lost modest share as more consumers indicated that they would not be shopping. Goldman Sachs sees Amazon as the top shopping destination this year, followed by Walmart. Amazon has struggled this year, up just 2.7%, while Walmart has gained 16% in that time. AMZN YTD mountain AMZN year to date Other potential winners include off-price retailers," Goldman said. "Amidst a modestly more muted holiday shopping backdrop, we believe market share gains will accrue to retailers who offer strong value or great fashion. Our stock calls that align with this include Buy-rated WMT and FIVE, Buy-rated BURL/TJX/ROST, and Buy-rated AMZN," the bank said. JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth echoed this take, singling out Amazon as his best idea for this holiday season. The e-commerce giant could benefit as U.S. e-commerce holiday season sales grow by an estimated 7%, Anmuth projected. He also applauded Amazon's wide selection and competitive pricing. "Amazon maintains a leading ~46% (full-year 2024) share of U.S. e-comm & enters the holiday season with strong momentum from early holiday promotions, SD1D delivery, lower cost to serve, Advertising, the Prime ecosystem, & competitive prices," he added. "Given mixed consumer sentiment, we expect larger retailers & e-commerce marketplaces to leverage rollbacks & markdowns to drive holiday demand despite tariff/de minimis cost headwinds, and AMZN continues to price match." UBS analyst Jay Sole expects a mediocre finish to this year's holiday season, citing consumers' waning willingness to spend given concerns around the job market, inflation and the macroeconomic backdrop. He noted that consumer confidence in the U.S. deteriorated across all demographic groups in November. In this current spending environment, Sole believes that off-price retailers such as TJX and Burlington will thrive. "We see an almost ideal set-up for Off-Price retailers to take major market share. U.S. consumers have financial resources to fuel strong growth. Yet, U.S. consumers' concerns about the future likely drive them to incrementally look to save money. Therefore, we expect consumers will find Off-Price retail's value-for-money offering particularly attractive this Holiday season," he wrote. TJX shares have popped 24% in 2025. Burlington Stores is up jus 1.7% in that time. Wall Street will get its first big round of spending this week, with Black Friday looming.
