Ridiculously high beef prices are a big problem at portfolio name Texas Roadhouse and many of its casual dining peers. The White House wants to help lower costs. But can it make a difference? Facing increasing political pressure over rising food costs, President Donald Trump has taken many steps to address the issue. On Thursday, Trump removed 40% tariffs on Brazilian food products, including beef and coffee. Last Friday, he exempted many agricultural imports, including certain beef products, from higher tariff rates. A day earlier, the White House announced trade agreements with several Latin American nations — including Argentina, from which Trump wants to boost beef import quotas. Earlier this month, Trump announced a Justice Department probe into meatpacking companies he says are driving up beef costs. To be sure, live cattle futures, an indicator of beef prices, have dropped roughly 13% since reaching an all-time high in mid-October. However, that decline has been little consolation since the 155% rise from multiyear lows in 2020. It is no wonder that Texas Roadhouse, whose stock tends to inversely follow beef prices, has found itself on the wrong side of beef inflation. The steakhouse chain has been doing a great job on things it can control, such as preserving the value that keeps diners coming through the doors. @LC.1 5Y mountain Live cattle futures over 5 years While delivering a same-store sales beat earlier this month with growth of 6.1% in the third quarter , Texas Roadhouse cited beef prices as a major headwind. It was the primary driver behind management raising its full-year 2025 commodity inflation outlook to 6% and forecasting 7% next year. "The squeeze on beef is horrendous," Jim Cramer said, noting the industry-wide implications for companies reliant on the popular protein. On recent earnings conference calls, food producer Tyson and fast-food operator Shake Shack are among the latest companies pointing to beef volatility as a drag on margins. Brinker , the sprawling franchise group behind Chili's, increased prices due to beef inflation. LongHorn Steakhouse owner Darden said beef prices are the biggest variable. "The president needs to intervene and get us some cows from Argentina," Jim said — a nod to Trump's plan to quadruple the tariff-rate quota on Argentine cattle imports to 80,000 metric tons in hopes of flooding the market to lower prices. Not surprisingly, American ranchers are up in arms, and analysts believe that Washington's ideas won't meaningfully move the needle on Texas Roadhouse stock and the whole restaurant cohort, which has been a terrible place to be this year. At the end of the day, the problem here is biological Terrain analyst Don Close "At the end of the day, the problem here is biological," said Don Close, senior protein analyst at cattle research and forecasting firm Terrain. The U.S. cattle inventory is at its smallest since 1951 due to intensifying droughts , covering a large region of American herds, and limited feed supplies. Cattle ranchers were forced to liquidate cows they could not afford to keep. The roughly three-year cattle production cycle poses the biggest challenge. Chickens bred for meat production, "you can change the outcome in six weeks. ... Hogs, you can change the outcome in six months. Fruits and vegetables, you can go from one crop year to the next," Close said. "[Trump] can fight a lot of things. He can create a lot of noise, but he can't fight biology." According to Close, once all the math is considered, tariff cuts and cattle imports would have a "nominal impact, minimal impact" on Texas Roadhouse's profitability, "but it's not going to be a game changer." He added, "Total imports of beef to the U.S are roughly about 10% of our total supply. When we think about the offset to the shortage of domestic cattle to the quantity of product being brought in, it's a small share in the overall scheme of things." Imports also pose risks to beef quality, a key selling point for Texas Roadhouse, which also owns the Bubba's 33 and Jaggers casual chains. Quality has been a growing concern amid the spread of a parasite fly known as the New World Screwworm, recently detected in Mexico. "I can't sell anything that has not been USDA-inspected," said Chad Muckenfuss, co-owner of Medford Cattle Farms in New Jersey. "[With] imports, there's not enough USDA inspectors to accurately review all of that product coming in." The better long-term solution is not more beef imports, Muckenfuss told CNBC, but rather government assistance to help grow the national herd. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a formal action plan to support the beef industry in late October. "I would much rather see the federal government open up additional grasslands for grazing," said Muckenfuss, who described Trump's Argentina strategy as a "bandaid" solution. Not enough USDA inspectors to accurately review all of that product coming in Medford Cattle Farms Chad Muckenfuss Close said Argentina's beef imports are largely lean trimmings that are mixed with domestic supply to make hamburger meat. "There aren't any steak items that are the bulk of [Texas Roadhouse's] sales," the Terrain analyst added. "It would not have a direct impact on the majority of items they buy." Texas Roadhouse stock has fortunately held onto most of its post-earnings pop despite the higher inflation guidance. But the position is a "fence-sitter stock," Jim said during the Club's November Monthly Meeting. He's not recommending it as a buy because share gains could be erased on any future spike in cattle futures. While cattle futures dropped in November, weather could pressure prices into December. Too much snow or cold may squeeze an already tight supply. TXRH YTD mountain Texas Roadhouse YTD Still, Jim praised Texas Roadhouse's loyalty to their clientele. "The company will not deviate from its determination to keep prices low. That means missing quarters until beef comes down." The company implemented only a 1.7% percent menu increase at the start of the quarter. We have the stock as a 2 rating , meaning we would want to see a pullback before considering buying more shares. Our price target of $185 per share , implies more than 11% upside to Thursday's $168 close. Wall Street analysts also have a largely neutral view on Texas Roadhouse, with 63% issuing hold-equivalent and 37% buy-equivalent, according to FactSet. The average Texas Roadhouse price target among the 32 analysts polled is $188.64 per share. Those analysts, including Piper Sandler and Stifel, agreed that while consumer traffic at Texas Roadhouse is proving resilient, beef costs simply aren't letting up. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long TXRH. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . 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