Several prominent artificial intelligence companies could be at risk if OpenAI does not get a "handout" from the federal government, according to D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria. OpenAI's sprawling tech deals have helped power the S & P 500's blockbuster rally this year. But the complex web of financial agreements signed by OpenAI, the owner of the ChatGPT bot, with other technology and chipmaking companies has led some investors to question vendor financing arrangements and the connected nature of the AI ecosystem . Investors are keeping an especially close eye on companies that could be exposed to any weaknesses in AI-related spending, given stocks' elevated valuations and a historically high level of concentration in a handful of giant tech stocks. Luria, D.A. Davidson's head of technology research, sees potential risks for companies counting on OpenAI orders for equipment, such as Oracle and Broadcom . His comments came after OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said Wednesday that the company is hoping for federal government support to guarantee financing for its infrastructure commitments. Later, she backpedaled to say that OpenAI is not looking for a government backstop . On Thursday, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman said on social media , "we do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI datacenters." Message received Still, Luria said that "the message to the government has likely gone through" if OpenAI does ever request funding on the basis of national security. "OpenAI may actually get what it is asking for," Luria said. "The U.S. administration has been more willing to take ownership stakes in other companies, and if the equity sweetener is generous enough they may take the bait on this one as well. We also acknowledge the possibility that OpenAI was able to show the government some presentation on super intelligence that is beyond the capabilities of any other company, though we would consider this unlikely." "If sanity prevails and this federal guarantee doesn't materialize, it could become clear that OpenAI cannot live up to its extravagant commitments. In which case we would view the companies propped up by OpenAI promises as the most vulnerable," he said. Luria has for weeks doubted OpenAI's nonprofit status, saying it limits its ability to compete with Big Tech peers, despite its private market value ballooning to about $500 billion. OpenAI has yet to turn a profit and doesn't expect to be cash-flow positive until 2029 . Companies at risk Luria highlighted several companies benefiting from OpenAI's deal that are vulnerable if such agreements slow. Most at risk are chipmakers Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices , database manager Oracle, Nvidia-backed cloud computing provider CoreWeave and nuclear energy company Oklo , Luria said. A recent downdraft notwithstanding, Broadcom, AMD and Oracle have soared between 66% and 144% in the past six months through late Thursday. AMD announced a deal with OpenAI a month ago that could see the AI startup buy as much as 10% of AMD common stock. Broadcom in October signed a custom chip deal with OpenAI to jointly develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators beginning in 2026. OpenAI in September signed a five-year contract with Oracle to purchase $300 billion in computing power, sending Oracle shares 36% higher in a single day. Oracle has since declined 16% in the past month, partly out of concern the company could be overvalued . CoreWeave has similarly dropped 20% in a month on concern that too much of its business comes from too few customers. Oklo, which aims to make small modular nuclear reactors, is down more than 22% in a month but more than 400% higher for the year. Oklo hasn't signed a deal with OpenAI, but Sam Altman is a key investor. OKLO 1Y mountain Oklo stock performance over the past year.
