From Spain’s bull run to gold’s surge: How the third quarter played out in Europe

Published Wed, Oct 1 20251:10 AM EDTUpdated Wed, Oct 1 20255:52 AM EDT

Jordan Butt

Key Points

The Stoxx Europe 600 returned north of 3% in the three months since July.
Spain is the clear outperformer with the IBEX equity index posting a return of more than 10% over the last few weeks.
Elsewhere, the mining sector has been on a tear, up nearly 10% for the month.

European markets ended the third quarter of the year with solid gains, boosted by better-than-expected economic growth from Spain and rallies from gold and the mining sector. It's been a better quarter for equities than the last, with the Stoxx Europe 600 returning north of 3% in the three months since July. But, one country in particular has shone: Spain has been the clear outperformer, and not just because of its double ratings upgrade — which Fitch put down to "recent productivity gains, moderate wage growth and relatively low energy prices." The country's main IBEX equity index has posted a return of more than 10% over the last few weeks, way above its continental peers. Spain's largest company by market capitalization, Inditex, helped buoy that index, after better-than-expected earnings helped its stock to claw back some of its losses for the year. But it was banks who lent the biggest hand in pushing the market higher, with shares in Santander , BBVA and Sabadell all surging more than 20%, outperforming their continental peers by around 10 percentage points. .IBEX .STOXX 3M line 2025-07-01 Spain's IBEX outperformed the broader Stoxx 600 in Q3 The best of the rest On this side of the Channel, HSBC rode the banking rally high enough to push AstraZeneca aside as the U.K.'s largest company by market capitalization — in a period fraught with uncertainty for pharma names. HSBA-GB AZN-GB 3M line 2025-07-01 HSBC replaced AstraZeneca as the UK's biggest company by market capitalisation in Q3. AstraZeneca hasn't just lost its crown as the U.K.'s most valuable firm by market capitalization: it's sunk to third in the FTSE's largest companies by weighting, with Shell elbowing its way into second place as of the end of August. Nevertheless, AstraZeneca shares still managed to notch gains of more than 10% in the quarter. Barclays' Head of European Pharma Research Emily Field told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" that the company has "played the political game extremely well," after it announced $50 billion in investment into the key battleground state of Virginia in July. This quarter also saw a change of guard at the top for European equities. ASML took the crown from SAP as Europe's largest company after shares rose more than a fifth versus SAP's near-12% haircut, putting the value of the Dutch firm at around 320 billion euros ($374.9 billion). ASML-NL SAP-DE 3M line 2025-07-01 ASML replaced SAP as the Stoxx 600's most valuable company by market cap in Q3. Analyst commentary has tended toward the bullish for the newly-anointed firm. Bank of America gave the stock a hefty price target boost in the wake of Nvidia 's $5 billion Intel investment, calling it a "clear positive for ASML" and eyeing a level north of $940 per share. Deutsche analysts agreed, saying "we think the newsflow around Intel has been just as important, if not more so to the long-term bull case around ASML and geopolitics." Elsewhere, the mining sector has been on a tear. It's up nearly 10% for the month, more than 17% for the quarter, as gold continues its record run and is set to notch its best month in 14 years. When it comes to safe havens, BNY's Senior Market Strategist Geoff Yu told CNBC the metal is even outperforming the Swiss franc at the moment. That's backed by Bank of America, who tracked $17.6 billion in inflows in September — a record. FRES-GB YTD mountain Chart showing Fresnillo stock performance for the year That rally has pushed shares in companies like Fresnillo higher. They're up more than 60% for the quarter, and could close out the year the best part of 300% higher if this momentum continues. That should prove a boost for the U.K.'s FTSE. But with Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget around the corner, the fourth quarter could still very much go either way.