There may not be much room to run left in the stock market, according to Bank of America. Strategist Savita Subramanian raised her 2025 S & P 500 target to 6,300 from 5,600. That represents upside of just 1.1% from Monday's close of 6,229.98. "It's hard to identify a positive catalyst for the S & P 500 to continue its meteoric run into Q3. Among our five target models, our EPS Surprise framework represents our near-term read and is mixed, at best," said Subramanian. "Negative guidance and revisions in April/May have improved to average levels but economic surprises have broken down. And the meat of corporate profits, tech company earnings, are slated to decelerate," she added. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date Subramanian's target change comes after the S & P 500 last week made fresh record highs. The market recovered from the steep losses seen in April sparked by the April 2 tariff announcement. At one point, the S & P 500 was nearly 20% below its February closing peak. The levies unveiled on "liberation day" and subsequent sell-off led Subramanian and many others to slash their year-end S & P 500 targets. She originally lowered her forecast to 5,600 from 6,666. But as the market turned around, several sell-side strategists notched their estimates back up. "The US isn't exceptional, but Corporate America might be," said Subramanian. "Despite tentative trade deals, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) and receding recession risks, policy uncertainty is near all-time highs. … But corporate transparency has remained intact." "Most co's have continued to guide on profits, and estimate dispersion (a measure of EPS uncertainty) is near post COVID lows," she said. Subramanian's new target is just above the 6,243 average among those included in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey . Previously, she was tied with Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel for the lowest target.
