The stock market appears set to continue its rally in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 after its recent rebound, according to CFRA. The firm, whose chief investment strategist is Sam Stovall, raised its 12-month target S & P 500 to 6,850. That is about 9% above where the index was trading on Thursday. CFRA's year-end target is 6,525, implying a roughly 4% gain over the next six months. "We are encouraged by the recent recovery from the near-19% correction and the typical post-correction gain averaging 10% since WWII. Also, in early October, the S & P 500 will enter its fourth year in which it advanced an average 13% following the historically challenging third year," CFRA said in a note to clients. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 is back at record highs. The updated outlook is an example of how the mood on Wall Street has changed since President Donald Trump walked back some of his harshest tariff proposals. As recently as April 23, CFRA called for a year-end level of 5,925 on the S & P 500, with a 12-month target of 6,240. A key dynamic in the outlook for CFRA and other Wall Street firms is the push and pull between economic growth in the U.S. and what that means for the Federal Reserve. Market expectations for a July rate cut fell sharply after Thursday's jobs report showed more hiring than expected in June. The CFRA note did not include a call on the July Fed meeting specifically, but rate cuts are part of the firm's forecast. "We see the Federal Reserve cutting the fed funds rate four times in the coming year for a total reduction of 1.00%," the note said. Stovall's year-end target of 6,525 for the S & P 500 is above the average of other major strategists, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey .
