Mosaic could be a winner ahead thanks to a tight phosphate market, according to RBC. Analyst Andrew Wong upgraded shares to outperform from sector perform. He also raised his price target to $40 from $30, indicating around 26.7% upside potential from Wednesday's close. Mosaic mines phosphate and potash, which are used as fertilizers globally. Phosphate markets are currently facing limited supply amid steady demand growth — under which Mosaic is well-positioned to benefit, according to Wong. Potash markets face similar conditions, the analyst added. "We also anticipate positive catalysts with several operational initiatives ongoing (increased phosphate production, lower potash costs, higher Brazil distribution volumes) and potential monetization of non-core assets," Wong wrote in a client note on Wednesday. Wong also believes Mosaic, a domestic producer, will benefit under U.S. tariffs. "While operations have been challenged in recent years, we believe management has set out clear plans for operational improvements that if executed well should meaningfully benefit both margins and sales volumes." The upgrade comes a day after Mosaic reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. The company also raised its potash production guidance for the full year. Shares have rallied 28.4% in 2025, meaningfully outperforming the S & P 500. That gain makes Mosaic the second best-performing name in the materials sector. Despite the upgrade, analysts are split on the stock. Of the 20 who cover it, 11 rate it a buy or strong buy, per LSEG. Another eight have a hold rating on Mosaic, and one analyst rates it as underperform. The stock advanced an additional 1.3% Thursday before the bell.
