A slowdown in first-quarter deliveries and headwinds from Tesla protests could dampen the company's near-term growth, according to Stifel. Analyst Stephen Gengaro reiterated his buy rating but trimmed his price target by $19 to $455. That still implies more than 72% upside from where shares closed on Friday. Gengaro lowered his first-quarter and full-year 2025 delivery forecasts, saying a slower-than-expected rollout of Tesla's new Model Y and the timing of its lower-priced vehicle could affect sales volumes. Tesla is expected to unveil a lower-cost electric vehicle, potentially a variant of its Model Y car, in the first half of the year. The company has already cut prices on its Model Y vehicle amid slowing global EV demand and rising competition, particularly in China. Gengaro is also cautious on how anti-Elon Musk crowds could affect sales in the near term. "The ramp of the new Model Y, the best-selling car in the world in 2024, is clearly a short-term sales headwind," Gengaro wrote in a Sunday note to clients. "As Model Y production ramps in 2025, we expect sales to accelerate. In addition, protests against Elon Musk (damage to Tesla sites, vandalism of customer-owned cars, damage to Superchargers) is a headwind to sales." TSLA 1Y mountain Tesla stock performance. The analyst cited data from the Stifel Think Tank Group that reflected a fall in Democrats' favorability rating on Tesla and an uptick in Republicans' views on the company. Democrats have been historically much more likely to buy EVs than Republicans, he pointed out. Still, Gengaro remains bullish for the long run given Tesla's strong positioning against other automakers in terms of tariff risks , as well as the expected rollout of its driver assistance software known as full self-driving in Texas by June. The introduction of the lower-cost car and growth in Tesla's energy storage business could also be catalysts for the stock, he said. "We expect share price volatility to persist in the near term, but remain optimistic on TSLA's medium- to long-term prospects and reiterate our Buy," Gengaro said. Tesla has had a rocky year and the stock has given up much of its postelection gain , losing about 34.7% year to date. Shares were down more than 4% in the premarket. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
