Nvidia could see a recovery rally next week if history repeats itself, according to Wells Fargo. The chipmaker is hosting its GPU Technology Conference, known as the GTC, next week. Shares have typically outperformed those of peers in the timeframe including this conference, Wells Fargo data shows. That's especially important as the artificial intelligence darling and bull market leader has pulled back following back-to-back years of monster gains. Shares of the retail investor favorite have tumbled 20% so far in 2025 after surging more than 238% in 2023 and 171% 2024. Nvidia is also a relative underperformer against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) , which has shed 10% year to date. That could change with the conference. Historical data from Wells Fargo found that Nvidia has outperformed the SOXX by 6.5 percentage points on average during the week of the GTC over the past five years. Nvidia has also historically been able to keep up that outperformance following the conference. In the two weeks following the conference, Nvidia has eclipsed the exchange-traded fund by 3.8 percentage points on average going back half a decade. For Nvidia, that equates to absolute average returns of 7% during conference week and 5.5% in the two weeks after. Those gains didn't always hold up when looking one month out, Wells Fargo data shows. The average return for Nvidia a month after the conference is -1.6%. The stock also lags the SOXX fund by 2.9 percentage points after 30 days. NVDA SOXX 1Y mountain NVDA vs. SOXX, 1-year Analyst Aaron Rakers also pointed out that the stock is entering GTC week with shares at a valuation discount of around 35% relative to its median, forward price-to-earnings multiple over three years and enterprise value-to-EBIT ratio. "We maintain our positive views on NVDA's broadening platform strategy and would be buying NVDA ahead of next week," he wrote to clients.
