Bonds

10-year Treasury yield rises after latest inflation, retail sales readings

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose Thursday as traders digested a resilient retail sales figure and a read on wholesale prices that indicated tolerable inflation outside of energy prices.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by 4 basis points to 4.288%. The 2-year Treasury yield was higher by 3 basis points to 5.014%.

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.


The producer price index, when adjusting seasonally, increased 0.7% in August and 1.6% year over year. The monthly reading of the index, which gauges the prices paid to producers, came in above the estimate of 0.4% from economists polled by Dow Jones.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core PPI rose 0.2%, a move that economists anticipated.

Meanwhile, retail sales were better than expected. They rose 0.6% in August, while economists forecasted a monthly increase of 0.1%. Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, also exceeding the 0.4% anticipated by economists.

That data comes a day after Wednesday's consumer price index report, which came in just above expectations as it rose by 0.6% on a monthly basis and 3.7% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had anticipated increases of 0.6% and 3.6%, respectively.

Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 4.3% on an annual basis, again just off previously estimated figures of 0.2% and 4.3%.

Uncertainty about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy has grown in recent weeks. Various Fed officials suggested rates may go higher still and cited economic data, especially that pertaining to inflation, as a pivotal factor for policy decisions ahead.

Markets were last pricing in a 97% chance of rates being left unchanged when the Fed meets next week, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, the picture is more split for the central bank's November meeting, with a 40% chance of a rate increase being announced then.

Outside the U.S., the European Central Bank announced its 10th consecutive interest rate hike on Thursday, bringing the main deposit facility to a record 4%.

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