(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only). The social distancing measures in place around the country are already showing signs of success by one measure, according to a top JPMorgan strategist, and that could lead to the U.S. economy and stock market bouncing back faster than many expect. The economy could restart in a "number of weeks" and the S & P 500 could be back to record levels by early next year if this early indicator is right, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said in a note to clients. Kolanovic is global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy and has a wide following on Wall Street for his calls. Using the U.S. Health Weather Map from Kinsa Insights, which tracks occurrences of flu-like illnesses across different regions of the country, Kolanovic concluded that the social distancing measures and shutdowns put in place by major cities are working. "While we cannot be sure that our interpretation of these data is correct, we believe they capture the main trends in the dynamic of COVID-19 spread and efficacy of implemented measures against the spreading of the disease," the note said. Kolanovic previous price target was 3,400 on the S & P 500 for the end of 2020, more than 40% above where the index was trading on Tuesday, and his earnings per share estimate was $150. He said the pandemic may only stop the index from reaching those targets for a few months. "Taking into account the unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures being implemented, as well as unprecedented asset declines over the past month, we maintain that asset price recovery is likely and our pre-pandemic equity price target for 2020 is achievable sometime in the first half of 2021," the note said. The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus has soared past 40,000 in the United States as testing has ramped up around the country. Some, including New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, have said social distancing measures may need to be in place for months. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he'd like to see the economy back near full strength again by Easter. A larger percentage of patients with the coronavirus are hospitalized than with the seasonal flu, raising alarm that the pandemic may overwhelm hospital systems. The data shows that San Francisco, one of the first areas of the country to implement strict social distancing measures, has flu-like illnesses at a rate already below average, and that New York City could reach that point soon, Kolanovic said. "NY real time incidence of atypical iLI peaked 7 days ago, and is on a declining trend. The peak will show up in hospital cases with an appropriate lag, in our view," the note said. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this story.
