Electric car maker Tesla has a new biggest fan on Wall Street. Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer sees Tesla's stock rallying more than 20% from its current price of around $418 to $515 over the next year. In a note, he told clients that 2020 will be an "electric year" for the carmaker. The target makes Dorsheimer the biggest bull on Tesla equity among Wall Street's major brokerages. Tesla shares rose 2.85% Thursday to $430.26 following the call, finishing the session just below its all-time closing high of $430.94. Canaccord's previous price target was $375. "We believe the trend towards electrification will only accelerate in 2020," he wrote. "While bears have feared demand issues as a function of tax credit expiration for Tesla, we suspect a solid Q4 combined with the robust Q3 should put these fears to rest and put to rest this issue as the credit expires." Canaccord's lofty target makes the brokerage the most optimistic of the major banks on Wall Street, eclipsing others like Berenberg's Alexander Haissl, who last year warned that the market continued to discount Tesla's "technological and cost advantage." Haissl in June issued a price target of $500 per share . Tesla equity is up 95% since that bullish note and finished 2019 up 25.7%. Two smaller boutique market researchers, New Street Research and Elazar Advisors, have targets higher than Canaccord, according to FactSet. Dorsheimer said his confidence in CEO Elon Musk's car company stems in part from what he expects will be healthy fourth-quarter delivery numbers. The analyst expects Tesla to report that it delivered about 369,000 vehicles in the three months ended Dec. 31, above the company's guidance of 360,000. But those trends shouldn't show signs of fatigue in the months to come, Dorsheimer added, especially with demand strong in the U.S. and China. "As Model 3s roll off Tesla's Chinese manufacturing facility with local subsidies intact, we believe the US-based focus will need to shift globally for the company," he said. "With deliveries beginning in China at the end of December, this market will be an important driver for the company in 2020." Tesla has over the last year poured cash and labor into the development of its Shanghai Gigafactory 3, the company's first such production facility outside the United States. Chinese law is expected to help Tesla lower its overall labor costs to perhaps one-tenth what it pays its California facility . That could spell an even bigger profits for the Palo Alto-based Tesla, analysts believe. Beijing is prioritizing the purchase of electric cars, offering such manufacturers a sizable tax break that ultimately lowers the cost of buying a Tesla in China for about the equivalent of $14,000. Investors also expect Tesla to introduce its Model Y and refresh its Models S and X, potential catalysts for further equity gains. Canaccord expects Tesla to post a fiscal 2019 loss of 31 cents per share, but snapping up to profit of $14.40 in 2020. Both targets are well above consensus estimates for a loss of 66 cents and profit of $6.14, respectively, according to FactSet.
