Tesla will deliver fewer vehicles than the low end of its guidance for the year and its stock may suffer, according to Cowen. The automaker is poised to deliver between 95,000 and 101,000 vehicles for its fourth quarter, Cowen said in a note to clients Monday. This would put deliveries for the year at roughly 356,000, below the 360,000 to 400,000 range the company has given as a guidance. The new analyst projection comes as the first Tesla Model 3s built in Shanghai are being delivered. China is seen as a large growth opportunity for Tesla, and the U.S.-based electric car company is delivering vehicles from the new factory less than a year after breaking ground to build it. Cowen, which has an underperform rating on the stock, raised its price target to $210 per share from $190 per share, citing growing demand in China and the Netherlands. Even with that increase, the price target still represents a 51% drop from where the stock closed Friday. Excluding those two countries, however, demand will be 7% lower for this quarter than the same one last year, according to Cowen. The decline "highlights the demand saturation we are seeing across most mature markets as we shift from pent-up demand to steady flow demand," the note said. Tesla's profit margins could also take a hit if the company is not able to lower the production costs for its cheaper Model 3 as the car takes up a bigger share of its sales, the note said. Tesla's stock has been on a tear recently, rising more than 30% since the start of December. The shares hit new all-time highs last week.
