Week in Review : Promises made, promises kept. That's the story right there. Taken in a vacuum, isolated to fulfilling the covenants of the unwritten contract a Presidential candidate makes with his constituency, it would be tough to recall any elected official who has abided by the terms of the agreement as dogmatically as Trump . Nor would you find a President who has proactively engaged business leaders from each sector, regardless of their political affiliation, as quickly or as personally as this President. So from purely a markets perspective, the markets have reviewed his agenda and signed on. So equity indices, despite an arguably muted performance where expectations have collectively fallen short of what indicators, away from the lagging GDP, tell us is a burgeoning economy, made new highs this week. The catalyst for the break to the upside was the President's promise to deliver a "tremendous" tax bill in two to three weeks, a task that would, in all other circumstances be responded to with snickers accompanied by sell orders on a market pop, if not short selling, but instead was greeted with a chorus of buy, buy buy. Put in perspective, the man has only been in office for less than a month and the authors of those trade tickets (old school alert) are the same cynical crowd that watched the prior administration fall down on their pledge to immediately shut down Guantanamo more than 8 years ago. So what gives? Am I losing my moral compass? Not at all; it's just that politics are not in my job description as an investor or fiduciary. In fact, I doubt I am aligned with any aspect of the President's policies or statements (or omissions) regarding non-fiscal matters. Observations: The opinions expressed herein are my own and not those of my employer, the People of the United States of America, and do not influence executing my duties as President. Wouldn't it be nice if this disclaimer appeared on @realDonaldTrump as we see on the masthead of so many other twitter accounts? So as an investor I have chosen to distinguish between The Donald and President Trump. He makes it easy; early morning and late at night are the tweet hours so I focus on the typical working day and I focus on fiscal issues. I still disagree with the immigration ban and I still can't believe Steve Bannon sits in place of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the Security Council (or anywhere) and I find not mentioning the Jewish people on Holocaust Remembrance Day a direct and intentional slight. Oh and I do feel a sigh of relief that the children in the heartland and the cities will be safe from grizzlies. But I can only allow myself to take those matters into account as indications of a combative and erratic personality for I did not view them as having an immediate impact on the markets while the President executed on his campaign promises. My trepidation about markets was a combination of valuation and what I viewed as an antagonistic and erratic President. None of those concerns have been eradicated but they have been somewhat mitigated. The commitment to a near term deliverable of a tax bill did serve to tilt my exposures more positive this week but it was Trump's discerning treatment of China versus Mexico and Australia that I found more comforting, my more than benign concern of an all-out trade war assuaged for the time being. Now, of course, I am not ringing the all clear bell just yet but even the most skeptical have to be encouraged by this dialogue, further supported by Trump's signing onto the One China policy (again, not a moral judgment), warmly embracing Shinzo Abe on the steps of the White House and comping him at Mar-a-Lago. So while I do believe that the markets are discounting passage of tax reform to a certain extent, it is not providing it full credit nor is it distinguishing winners and losers, broadly. Meanwhile, volatility has died a slow agonizing death having gone 86 consecutive days without a one percent drop in the S & P 500 , the longest such streak since 2006. You can worry about but what's the point. You can also worry about what happens in the aftermath of a Patriot's Super Bowl victory. Who has generated any alpha doing that? Outlook: Synchronized global economic recovery. That's where we are. Can't tell you if China's export numbers were accurate but I will take them at face value and doing so translate into strength for the European economy. The markets, both here and abroad, look attractive. My preference remains to be domestically positioned but on a stock by stock basis with very few thematic plays although I do like the airlines — still and, of course, the banks, Elizabeth Warren be damned — Please. And sovereigns. Well the best you can say about them is that they have given you the opportunity to add to your short on the bunds and perhaps the UST 10 year. As to the USD, if we are truly in the global recovery and if the President is able to execute the art of the deal regarding other nations devaluing their currency, the USD may not be on a straight trip higher and S & P multinational earnings may not be pressured. I am adding exposure. Bought Apple for the first time in a long time because those getting front of the upgrade cycle are queuing up sooner and sooner and this will be a big one — it's a trade — and I believe the border tax is in trouble; if not, they are in trouble because they make zilch here. Added to C and other financials. Sold out of Macy 's after the pop, courtesy of rumors of a deal. And looking for more. (Mr. Weiss is the managing partner of Short Hills Capital Partners, a hedge fund advisory firm and asset manager primarily established to invest on behalf of one of the industry's most successful hedge fund managers. He has held senior management positions at SAC Capital, Salomon Brothers, Lehman Brothers and MSW Asset Management. He is the author of two investment books and a novel, is a visiting teaching fellow at UNC's graduate business school, Kenan-Flagler, and a CNBC contributor appearing regularly on "The Halftime Report.")
