The bulls had a good week on oil and equity. Now as we gear up for a new week the question is: Has the crowded trade of long U.S dollar/short oil been unwound enough last week to get back to less volatile moves in both the S & P 500 and oil? Factory orders were bearish last week and gave some ammunition to those who have said that European weakness will eventually show up in the U.S. But the S & P 500 cash managed to fight its way back above the 50-day moving average (2,044). We also got oil inventories remaining at 30-year highs, which in theory should be bearish for oil. But as shorts covered their positions, crude maintained the $50 level. The jobs numbers were positive as well and showed some wage inflation for the first time in what seems like forever. That actually is not so positive since corporations will be forced to raise prices to pay for those wages that have started to creep higher, even if it's a slow creep. Add all that up and we should have seen lower markets, but we didn't. Just as the saying goes "Don't fight the Fed," you also can't fight momentum. Read More So let's look at some technicals to know Value investor likes drug, bank & tech stocks. Bears are looking for a right shoulder to form at the 2,079 level, completing a bearish "head and shoulders" pattern. If you believe the market is going to roll over to the downside, it should fail around that level. So far, we have taken out the 2,064 level to the upside, which had been bulletproof resistance recently, on an intraday basis. The S & P couldn't close above there, however. So, I remain bearish on the macro markets with Greece still not figured out, as well as Russia trying to split Europe and gain softer sentiment to combat the hard line the U.S. has taken. I am looking for oil to sell off again on supply gluts sticking around, but I am clearly aware of its ability to move higher as desperate hedge funds throw in the towel on their shorts. On the single stock front, I sold nearly a third of my Twitter position off that impressive rally out of earnings. The $50 level in Twitter is crucial to overcome and hold. Investors are giving it a second look after being universally negative on the name last year. Steven Grasso is director of institutional sales at Stuart Frankel. Follow him on Twitter @grassosteve . D isclosure : Long Twitter, long several U.S. big cap stocks. Disclaimer
