Their earnings were good but not great, about 83 million users are fakes, and the social network's share price has been nearly halved since it's $38 IPO.
Blindsided by this laundry-list of woes, Facebook's investors are now wondering what to make of its prospects — especially given that no financial projections were offered in the company's first earnings announcement.
But Ken Sena, analyst for Evercore Partners says Facebook's
value will get much clearer after the company's lockup period
expires.
Currently major shareholders who owned Facebook stock before it went public are restricted from selling. As of August 16th, when the first lockup period ends, many of them will have the option to sell.
"Investors should wait to gauge value [until] after the lockup," Sena told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” The sheer amounts to be "un-locked," he noted, will surely get investors' attention.
"The number of shares that are outstanding currently
floated is about $400 million. That number is going to
increase to about $1.4 billion over the next two months,"
said Ken Sena, analyst for Evercore Partners.
Some fear additional supply will drive down prices. On the
other hand, if there isn't a selling glut, more shareholder
commitment will be seen as positive.
In any case, Sena says buying Facebook at $20 is "risky." The
analyst has a "hold" rating on the stock with a $34 price
target — a far cry from Friday's price.
But Sena believes the company will follow through with a move
to mobile, and even be able to monetize it.
"You're still talking about close to a billion Facebook
users, and there's still a tremenodous amount of value
surrounding intangibles," he said.
As for the question of Facebook's nearly
83 million
fake users , a.k.a. 'the bots,' Sena simply
considers that a non-issue.
"The challenge is to drive higher use among real users, as
well as better monetization. That's enough even without the
bots."
By Friday afternoon, some investors seemed to agree — driving Facebook's share price up over 8 percent.
—By CNBC.com’s Jennifer Leigh Parker
Additional News: Facebook Hosts Millions of Fake
Users
Additional
Views: Facebook is 'Attractive' at $20:
Blodget
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Disclosures:
Ken Sena does not personally own Facebook shares.
Evercore Partners or an affiliate beneficially owns 1% or
more of common equity securities of Facebook. Evercore or
an affiliate has a client relationship with, or has
received compensation from Facebook for investment banking
services in the last 12 months.
Disclaimer
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Follow Jennifer Leigh Parker on Twitter @jparker741 .